Kelly, T. B. (2018). Spatial and interannual variability in export efficiency and the biological pump in an eastern boundary current upwelling system with substantial lateral advection . Master's thesis, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL.
Kelly, T. B., Davison, P. C., Goericke, R., Landry, M. R., Ohman, M. D., & Stukel, M., R. (2019). The Importance of Mesozooplankton Diel Vertical Migration for Sustaining a Mesopelagic Food Web. FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE , 6 .
Abstract: We used extensive ecological and biogeochemical measurements obtained from quasi-Lagrangian experiments during two California Current Ecosystem Long-Term Ecosystem Research cruises to analyze carbon fluxes between the epipelagic and mesopelagic zones using a linear inverse ecosystem model (LIEM). Measurement constraints on the model include C-14 primary productivity, dilution-based microzooplankton grazing rates, gut pigment-based mesozooplankton grazing rates (on multiple zooplankton size classes), Th-234:U-238 disequilibrium and sediment trap measured carbon export, and metabolic requirements of micronekton, zooplankton, and bacteria. A likelihood approach (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) was used to estimate the resulting flow uncertainties from a sample of potential flux networks. Results highlight the importance of mesozooplankton active transport (i.e., diel vertical migration) in supplying the carbon demand of mesopelagic organisms and sequestering carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In nine water parcels ranging from a coastal bloom to offshore oligotrophic conditions, mesozooplankton active transport accounted for 18-84% (median: 42%) of the total carbon transfer to the mesopelagic, with gravitational settling of POC (12-55%; median: 37%), and subduction (2-32%; median: 14%) providing the majority of the remainder. Vertically migrating zooplankton contributed to downward carbon flux through respiration and excretion at depth and via mortality losses to predatory zooplankton and mesopelagic fish (e.g., myctophids and gonostomatids). Sensitivity analyses showed that the results of the LIEM were robust to changes in nekton metabolic demand, rates of bacterial production, and mesozooplankton gross growth efficiency. This analysis suggests that prior estimates of zooplankton active transport based on conservative estimates of standard (rather than active) metabolism are likely too low.
Kelly, T. B., Goericke, R., Kahru, M., Song, H., & Stukel, M. R. (2018). CCE II: Spatial and interannual variability in export efficiency and the biological pump in an eastern boundary current upwelling system with substantial lateral advection. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers , 140 , 14–25.
Abstract: Estimating interannual variability in carbon export is a key goal of many marine biogeochemical studies. However, due to variations in export mechanisms between regions, generalized models used to estimate global patterns in export often fail when used for intra-regional analysis. We present here a region-specific model of export production for the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) parameterized using intensive Lagrangian process studies conducted during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm and neutral phases by the CCE Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program. We find that, contrary to expectations from prominent global algorithms, export efficiency (e-ratio = export / primary productivity) is positively correlated with temperature and negatively correlated with net primary productivity (NPP). We attribute these results to the substantial horizontal advection found within the region, and verify this assumption by using a Lagrangian particle tracking model to estimate water mass age. We further suggest that sinking particles in the CCE are comprised of a recently-produced, rapidly-sinking component (likely mesozooplankton fecal pellets) and a longer-lived, slowly-sinking component that is likely advected long distances prior to export. We determine a new algorithm for estimating particle export in the CCE from NPP (Export = 0.08 · NPP + 72 mg C m-2 d-1). We apply this algorithm to a two-decade long time series of NPP in the CCE to estimate spatial and interannual variability across multiple ENSO phases. Reduced export during the warm anomaly of 2014-2015 and El Niño 2015-2016 resulted primarily from decreased export in the coastal upwelling region of the CCE; the oligotrophic offshore region exhibited comparatively low seasonal and interannual variability in flux. The model resolves intra-regional patterns of in situ export measurements, and provides a valuable contrast to global export models.
Kelly, T. B., Goericke, R., Kahru, M., Song, H., & Stukel, M. R. (2018). CCE II: Spatial and interannual variability in export efficiency and the biological pump in an eastern boundary current upwelling system with substantial lateral advection. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers , 140 , 14–25.
Kent, E. C., Rayner, N. A., Berry, D. I., Eastman, R., Grigorieva, V. G., Huang, B., et al. (2019). Observing Requirements for Long-Term Climate Records at the Ocean Surface. Front. Mar. Sci. , 6 , 441.
Abstract: Observations of conditions at the ocean surface have been made for centuries, contributing to some of the longest instrumental records of climate change. Most prominent is the climate data record (CDR) of sea surface temperature (SST), which is itself essential to the majority of activities in climate science and climate service provision. A much wider range of surface marine observations is available however, providing a rich source of data on past climate. We present a general error model describing the characteristics of observations used for the construction of climate records, illustrating the importance of multi-variate records with rich metadata for reducing uncertainty in CDRs. We describe the data and metadata requirements for the construction of stable, multi-century marine CDRs for variables important for describing the changing climate: SST, mean sea level pressure, air temperature, humidity, winds, clouds, and waves. Available sources of surface marine data are reviewed in the context of the error model. We outline the need for a range of complementary observations, including very high quality observations at a limited number of locations and also observations that sample more broadly but with greater uncertainty. We describe how high-resolution modern records, particularly those of high-quality, can help to improve the quality of observations throughout the historical record. We recommend the extension of internationally-coordinated data management and curation to observation types that do not have a primary focus of the construction of climate records. Also recommended is reprocessing the existing surface marine climate archive to improve and quantify data and metadata quality and homogeneity. We also recommend the expansion of observations from research vessels and high quality moorings, routine observations from ships and from data and metadata rescue. Other priorities include: field evaluation of sensors; resources for the process of establishing user requirements and determining whether requirements are being met; and research to estimate uncertainty, quantify biases and to improve methods of construction of CDRs. The requirements developed in this paper encompass specific actions involving a variety of stakeholders, including funding agencies, scientists, data managers, observing network operators, satellite agencies, and international co-ordination bodies.
Kim, D., Lee, S. - K., Lopez, H., Foltz, G. R., Misra, V., & Kumar, A. (2020). On the Role of Pacific-Atlantic SST Contrast and Associated Caribbean Sea Convection in August-October U.S. Regional Rainfall Variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 47 (11).
Abstract: This study investigates the large‐scale atmospheric processes that lead to U.S. precipitation variability in late summer to midfall (August–October; ASO) and shows that the well‐recognized relationship between North Atlantic Subtropical High and U.S. precipitation in peak summer (June–August) significantly weakens in ASO. The working hypothesis derived from our analysis is that in ASO convective activity in the Caribbean Sea, modulated by the tropical Pacific‐Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly contrast, directly influences the North American Low‐Level Jet and thus U.S. precipitation east of the Rockies, through a Gill‐type response. This hypothesis derived from observations is strongly supported by a long‐term climate model simulation and by a linear baroclinic atmospheric model with prescribed diabatic forcings in the Caribbean Sea. This study integrates key findings from previous studies and advances a consistent physical rationale that links the Pacific‐Atlantic SST anomaly contrast, Caribbean Sea convective activity, and U.S. rainfall in ASO.
Kirtman, B. P., Misra, V., Anandhi, A., Palko, D., & Infanti, J. (2017). Future Climate Change Scenarios for Florida. In E. P. Chassignet, J. W. Jones, V. Misra, & J. Obeysekera (Eds.), Florida's climate: Changes, variations, & impacts (pp. 533–555). Gainesville, FL: Florida Climate Institute.
Kirtman, B. P., Misra, V., Burgman, R. J., Infanti, J., & Obeysekera, J. (2017). Florida Climate Variability and Prediction. In E. P. Chassignet, J. W. Jones, V. Misra, & J. Obeysekera (Eds.), Florida's climate: Changes, variations, & impacts (pp. 511–532). Gainesville, FL: Florida Climate Institute.
Kranz, S. A., Wang, S., Kelly, T. B., Stukel, M. R., Goericke, R., Landry, M. R., et al. (2020). Lagrangian Studies of Marine Production: A Multimethod Assessment of Productivity Relationships in the California Current Ecosystem Upwelling Region. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans , 125 (6).
Abstract: A multimethod process‐oriented investigation of diverse productivity measures in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) Long‐Term Ecological Research study region, a complex physical environment, is presented. Seven multiday deployments covering a transition region from high to low productivity were conducted over two field expeditions (spring 2016 and summer 2017). Employing a Lagrangian study design, water parcels were followed over several days, comparing 24‐h in situ measurements (14C and 15NO3 ‐uptake, dilution estimates of phytoplankton growth, and microzooplankton grazing) with high‐resolution productivity measurements by fast repetition rate fluorometry (FRRF) and equilibrium inlet mass spectrometry (EIMS), and integrated carbon export measuremnts using sediment traps. Results show the importance of accounting for temporal and fine spatial scale variability when estimating ecosystem production. FRRF and EIMS measurements resolved diel patterns in gross primary and net community production. Diel productivity changes agreed well with comparably more traditional measurements. While differences in productivity metrics calculated over different time intervals were considerable, as those methods rely on different base assumptions, the data can be used to explain ecosystem processes which would otherwise have gone unnoticed. The processes resolved from this method comparison further understanding of temporal and spatial coupling and decoupling of surface productivity and potential carbon burial in a gradient from coastal to offshore ecosystems.
Krishnamurti, T. N., Karmakar, N., Misra, V., Nag, B., Sahu, D., Dubey, S., et al. (2018). Association between upper level diffluence in the Tropical Easterly Jet and the formation of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in recent years. SPIE , 10782 , 10.
Abstract: In this paper we report the evidence of the potential role of diffluence in the 200hPa wind field off the coast of West Africa in the formation of a significant number of Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes in the recent decade. It is shown that more than 80% cases of hurricanes at Category 4 and above is preceded by upper level diffluence in the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) by 0{5 days. This TEJ is the outflow from the southern flank of the Tibetan anticyclone from the Asian monsoon region.
