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NOAA's 32nd Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop (CDPW) Center for Atmospheric/Prediction Studies (COAPS) Venue: Ramada Conference Center, 2900 North Monroe Street, Tallahassee, FL 32303. Program Agenda (October 22-26, 2007) |
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Monday, October 22, 2007 |
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8:00 am - 8:30 am |
Registration |
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Opening Remarks |
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Co-Chairpersons: Wayne Higgins (CPC/NOAA) ; Jim O' Brien (COAPS/FSU) |
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8:30 am - 8:40 am |
Welcoming Remarks |
Ross Ellington; FSU |
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8:40 am - 8:50 am |
Opening Remarks |
Jim O'Brien; COAPS/FSU |
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8:50am - 9:10 am |
CFS as the National Model |
Louis Uccellini; NOAA/NCEP |
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9:10 am – 9:30 am |
CPC Embracing the Future |
Wayne Higgins; CPC/NCEP |
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Session 1: Review of Operational Forecasts |
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Chairperson: Mike Halpert; CPC |
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9:30 am - 9:50 am |
A Review of 2005/2007 ENSO Predictions |
Tony Barnston; IRI |
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9:50 am -10:20 am |
Coffee |
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10:20 am - 10:40 am |
A Review of 2005/2007 US drought monitor and outlook |
Doug LeComte; NCEP/CPC |
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10:40 am - 11:00 am |
10 Years of U.S. Hazards Assessments |
Ed O’Lenic; NCEP/CPC |
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11:00 am -11:20 am |
Skill assessment of CPC seasonal forecasts from 1995-2006 |
A. Kumar; NCEP/CPC |
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11:20 am - 11:40pm |
A review of UKMET forecasts for Europe |
Andrew Colman; UKMO |
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11:40 am -12:00pm |
A review of CFS forecasts for 2005-2007 |
Wanqiu Wang, NCEP/CPC |
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12:00 pm - 1:00 pm |
Lunch |
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Session 2 (CTB Session): CFS and the Next Generation Reanalysis |
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Chairperson: Robert Webb; ESRL |
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1:00 pm -1:40 pm |
Status and Plan of the NCEP CFSRR Project |
Hua-Lu Pan; EMC/NCEP |
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1:40 pm -2:00 pm |
The 20th Century Reanalysis Project |
Jeffrey Whitaker; ESRL/NOAA |
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2:00 pm -2:20 pm |
Subseasonal predictions with the NCEP CFS:Forecast skill and prediction barriers |
Augustin Vinzileos; EMC/NCEP |
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2:20 pm-2:40 pm |
Empirical Correction of the Global Forecast System |
Timothy DelSole; GMU/COLA |
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2:40 pm - 3:10 pm |
Coffee |
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3:10 pm - 3:30 pm |
Comparison of Daily Precip. Statistics for the US in observations and in NCEP CFS |
Wayne Higgins; CPC/NCEP |
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3:30 pm - 3:50 pm |
Development of fast and accurate Neural Network Emulations of LW Radiation for the NCEP CFS Model |
Krasnopolsky; ESSIC/Univ.MD |
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3:50 pm - 4:10 pm |
Report on the FY07 CFS Test and evaluation Team Activities |
Jae-Kyung Schemm; CPC/NCEP |
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4:10 pm - 4:30 pm |
The Equatorial Cold Tongue Bias in a Coupled Climate Model |
V. Misra; COLA |
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4:30 pm - 4:50 pm |
Applying NCEP’s GODAS and CFS to monitor, diagnose and forecast coastal upwelling for the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) |
Yan Xue; CPC/NCEP |
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4:40pm - 5:10 pm |
Evaluation of the FSU/COAPS Climate Model. |
M.Engelma, COAPS/FSU |
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5:10pm - 5:30 pm |
Demonstration of new capabilities in GrADS |
Jennifer Adams, COLA |
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6:00 pm-7:30 pm |
Iee breaker; Cash Bar |
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Tuesday, October 23, 2007 |
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Session 3: Climate extremes |
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Chairperson: Jeffery Whitaker; ESRL |
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8:30 am - 8:50 am |
Attribution of extreme variability of Temperature and Rainfall in the Florida dry season |
Bart hagemeyer; NWS/NOAA |
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8:50 am - 9:10 am |
High Resolution Ensemble Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane simulations |
Tim LaRow; COAPS/FSU |
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9:10 am - 9:30 am |
North Atlantic Ocean Multi-decadal variability |
Philip Klotzbach; CSU |
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9:30 am - 9:50 am |
Probabilistic Forecasts of Extreme Prcipitation Events for the U.S. Hazards Assessment. |
Ken Pelman, CPC/NCEP |
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9:50 am - 10:10 am |
Impact of the Atlantic Warm Pool on Western hemisphere climate and hurricanes |
Chunzai Wang; AOML/NOAA |
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10:10 am - 10:40 am |
Coffee |
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10:40 am - 11:00 am |
Near-surface Climate Extremes in the past 50+Years |
Yun Fan: CPC/NCEP |
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11:00 am - 11:20 am |
An assessment of the low-frequency changes in the tropical cyclone formation in the North Atlantic basin |
Phillip Pegion; GSFC/NASA |
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11:20 am - 11:40 am |
Potential Climate factors associated with variations in the level of Lake Superior |
John Janowiak; CPC/NCEP |
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11:40 pm - 12:00 pm |
An analysis of the extreme temperatures in Europe in 2006/2007 |
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh;KNMI |
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12:00 pm - 1:00 pm |
Lunch |
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Session 4 : Application of CPC climate outlooks in the southeast US |
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Chairperson: Muthu Chelliah; CPC |
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1:00 pm - 1:20 pm |
Working and partnering with climate stakeholders |
Jim O'Brien; Prof.Emeritus, FSU |
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1:20 pm -1:40 pm |
AgClimate Outlooks: Delivering climate-based information to stakeholders in agriculture |
Joel Paz; Univ.Georgia |
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1:40 pm -2:00 pm |
Forecasting cotton yields over the southeastern US using NCEP/R and NCEP/CFS |
GuillermoBaigorria; UF/SECC |
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2:00 pm-4:00 pm |
Coffee and Poster Session 1 (Chairperson: D.W. Shin; COAPS/FSU) |
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4:00 pm - 4:20 pm |
From Participatory Research to Social Learning: Assessment of Climate Forecast Tools for Livestock Producers |
Norman Brewer; Univ.Miami |
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4:20 pm - 4:40 pm |
Validation of Climate-Based Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlooks |
Paul Trimble; SFWMD |
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4:40 pm - 5:00 pm |
Climate Information and agricultural Risk Management: Understanding Farmer's Deccision Making |
Todd Crane; Univ. Georgia |
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5:00 pm - 5:20 pm |
Sensitivity of MJO predictability to SST |
Kathy Pegion; COLA |
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Wednesday, October 24, 2007 |
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Session 5: Prospects for improving precipitation/drought forecasts for different time-scales |
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Chairperson: Huug van den Dool; CPC |
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8:30 am - 9:10 am |
Prospects for improved hydrological and agricultural drought prediction: the role of precipitation forecasts? |
Dennis Lettenmaier; Univ.Wash. |
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9:10 am - 9:30 am |
NCEP 2-week forecast skill for early-winter warm, wet storms in the Pacific Northwest. |
Todd Mitchell; Univ. Wash. |
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9:30 am - 9:50 am |
Multi-model ensemble reconstruction of drought over the continental US |
Aihui Wang; Univ. Wash. |
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9:50 am - 10:10 am |
Predictability of spring temperatures due to snow cover effect |
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, KNMI. |
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10:10 am - 10:40 am |
Coffee |
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10:40 am -11:00 am |
2007 Drought and Wet spells over the United States and Mexico. |
Kingtse Mo; CPC/NCEP |
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11:00 am -11:20 am |
Use of linear discriminant methods for calibration of seasonal probability forecasts. |
Andrew Colman; UKMO |
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11:20 am -11:40 am |
Verification of NAEFS land surface forecasts in warm season JAS 2006 |
Wanru Wu, CPC/NOAA |
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11:40 am -12:00 pm |
Summer season predictions with NCEP/CFS using diff. land models and land IC's |
Rongqian Yang; EMC/NCEP |
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12:00 pm - 1:00 pm |
Lunch |
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Session 6: Current state of ENSO predictions, predictability, and impacts |
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Chairperson: Allan Clarke; FSU |
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1:00 pm -1:40 pm |
On the origin of the observed ENSO variability |
Javier Zavala-Garay;Rutgers U. |
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1:40 pm -2:00 pm |
A southern hemisphere footprint in the American Midwest |
Cecile Penland; ESRL/NOAA |
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2:00 pm -2:20pm |
A comparative study of the atypical 1998-2000 La Nina with previous La Nina events |
Amir Shabbar; ARD/Env.Canada |
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2:20 pm -2:40 pm |
Equatrial Pacific heat content and ENSO prediction |
Allan Clarke; FSU |
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2:40 pm - 3:10 pm |
Coffee |
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3:10 pm - 3:30 pm |
How is ENSO-monsoon relationship in coupled prediction affected by model's systematic errors |
June-Yi Lee; IPRC/Univ.HI |
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3:30 pm - 3:50 pm |
Multi-model ENSO prediction using CFS and CCSM3 |
Ben Kirtman;Univ.Miami/COLA |
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3:50 pm - 4:10 pm |
The effects of 2006/7 El Nino on Australia's climate and bushfire season |
Bradley Murphy; BM/Australia |
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4:10 pm - 4:30 pm |
Predictability of ENSO-Monsoon relationship in NCEP/CFS |
Emilia Jin; GMU/COLA |
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4:30 pm - 4:50 pm |
An Attribution Analysis of variations in Skill of CPC’s Seasonal Surface Temperature Forecasts. |
Peitao Peng, CPC/NCEP |
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4:50 pm - 5:10 pm |
Trend and Variability of East-Asian Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures |
Fanglin Yang, EMC/NCEP |
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TBD |
Banquet. Speaker: Charles Bronson, Commissioner, Florida Agriculture and Consumer Services http://www.myflorida.com/agency/1/ |
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Thursday, October 25, 2007 |
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Session 7: Stratospheric/tropospheric connections and intra-seasonal predictions |
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Chairperson: Ming Cai; FSU |
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8:30 am - 9:10 am |
Intraseasonal Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling and Tropospheric Predictions |
Robert Black; Georgia Tech and Walt Robinson (NSF) |
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9:10 am - 9:30 am |
Predictability and predictin of Tropical Intra-seasonal Oscillation |
Xiouhua Fu; IPRC/Univ.HI |
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9:30 am - 9:50 am |
Assesing the skill of an all-season statistical forecast model of the Madden-Julian Oscillation |
XiananJiang; JPL/Cal.Tech |
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9:50 am - 10:10 am |
A stochastic model of the Madden-Julian Oscillaion |
Charles Jones; ICESS/Univ.Cal |
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10:10 am - 10:40 am |
Coffee |
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10:40 am -11:00 am |
Development of precipitation outlooks for the global tropics keyed to the MJO Cycle |
Jon Gottschalck; CPC/NCEP |
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11:00 am -11:20 am |
Verification of the NCEP Operational GFS predictions in the stratosphere during DJF 2005/6 and 2006/7 |
Ming Cai; FSU |
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11:20 am -11:40 am |
Signal to noise ratios for subseasonal atmospheric variability |
Edward Berry; PSD/ESRL/NOAA |
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11:40 am -12:00 pm |
Evaluation of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation in a coupled climate model |
Suhee Park; NIMR/KMA |
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12:00 pm - 1:00 pm |
Lunch |
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Session 8: Physical basis for developing a forecast capability for weeks 3 & 4 |
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Chairperson: Walt Robinson; NSF |
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1:00 pm -1:40 pm |
Physical basis for developing a forecast capability for weeks 3 & 4 |
Matt Newmann; ESRL/NOAA |
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1:40 pm -2:00 pm |
Assessing the skill of ECMWF forecasts in weeks 3-4 |
Jeff Whitaker; ESRL/NOAA |
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2:00 am -2:20 pm |
Verification of daily CFS Forecasts from day 1 to day 270 |
Huug van den dool; CPC/NCEP |
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2:20 pm - 4:00 pm |
Coffee and Poster Session 2 (Chairperson: Song Yang, CPC/NOAA) |
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4:00 pm - 4:20 pm |
Coupled Predictability of the seasonal tropical precipitation |
Bin Wang; Univ. HI |
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4:20 pm - 4:40 pm |
Examining Fresh Water Flux over Global Oceans in the NCEP CDAS, CDAS2, GDAS, GFS and CFS |
P.Xie; CPC/NCEP |
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4:40 pm - 5:00 pm |
Attribution of observed climate trends over the U.S. during 1950-2000 |
Hailan Wang; GEST/UMBC |
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5:00 pm - 5:20 pm |
New coupled forecast system at the Japan Meteorological Agency |
Yuhei Takaya; JMA/Japan |
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Friday, October 26, 2007 |
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Session 9:Scientific/practical results from North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) and Precipitation analyses |
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Chairperson: Song Yang; CPC |
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8:30 am - 8:50 am |
Statistical downscaling of warm season medium-range precipitation prediction in the core North America Regon with application to water resources forecasting. |
David Gochis; NCAR |
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8:50 am - 9:10 am |
MM5/VIC modeling of the influence of antecedent soil moisture on the variability of the North American Monsoon system |
Chumei Zhu; Univ. Wash. |
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9:10 am - 9:30 am |
Assessment of the NCEP/CFS on the predictability of the North American Monsoon |
Lindsey Long; CPC/NCEP |
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9:30 am - 9:50 am |
Contributions of Water vapor and temperature to the Interannual varibility of precipitation: An evaluation from North American Regional Reanalysis |
Er Lu; Iowate Stae Univ. |
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9:50 am - 10:20 am |
Coffee |
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10:20 am - 10:40 am |
A global daily gauge-based precipitation analysis, PartI: Assessing Objective Techniques |
Mingyue Chen; CPC/NCEP |
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10:40 am - 11:00 am |
Kalman filter approach to CMORPH: a skill and error assessment of instantaneous and propagated passive microwave estimated rainfall |
Robert Joyce; CPC/NCEP |
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11:00 am - 11:20 am |
Variability of U.S. Regional Precipitation, Associated Physical Processes and Simulations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System. |
Song Yang; CPC/NCEP |
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11:20 am - 11:40 am |
Regional climate simulation of surface temperature and precipitation by downscaling approach over the southeast United States |
Young-Kwon Lim; FSU |
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32nd CDPW Ends |
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