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Author Brolley, J. M.
Title Experimental Forest Fire Threat Forecast Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2004 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Forest Fire, El Nino, ENSO, Seasonal Forecast, KBDI, Keetch-Byram Drought Index, Bootstrapping
Abstract Climate shifts due to El Niño (warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and La Niña (cooler than normal) are well known and used to predict seasonal temperature and precipitation trends up to a year in advance. These climate shifts are particularly strong in the Southeastern United States. During the winter and spring months, El Niño brings plentiful rainfall and cooler temperatures to Florida. Recent los Niños occurred in 1997-1998, one of the strongest on record, with another mild El Niño in 2002-2003. Conversely, La Niña is associated with warm and dry winter and spring seasons in Florida. Temperature and precipitation affect wildfire activity; interannual drivers of climate, like ENSO, have an influence on wildfire activity. Studies have shown a strong connection between wildfires in Florida and La Niña, with the more than double the average number of acres burned (O'Brien et al 2002; Jones et al. 1999). While this relationship is important and lends a degree of predictability to the relative activity of future wildfire seasons, human activities such as effective suppression, prescribed burns, and ignition can play an equally important role in wildfire risks. This study forecasts wildfire potential rather than actual burn statistics to avoid complications due to human interactions. This wildfire threat potential is based upon the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). The KBDI is well suited as a seasonal forecast medium. It is based on daily temperature and rainfall measurements and responds to changing climate and weather conditions on time scales of days to months, and this index is high during dry warm weather patterns and low during wet cool patterns. The KBDI has been widely used in forestry in the Southeastern United States since its development in the 1970's, with foresters and firefighters have a good level of familiarity with the index and its applications. The KBDI is calculated daily and used as an index by wildfire managers. This study calculates wildfire potential using a statistical method known as bootstrapping. Many datasets contain approximately a half-century of data, and the limited dataset will introduce biases. Bootstrapping can remedy bias by simulating thousands of years of data, which retain the climatology for the past half-century. Bootstrapping preserves the mean but not the variance. By incorporating this method, this study will improve long-term forest fire risks that will become useful for those living or working near forests and assist in managing forests and wildfires. The Southeast Climate Consortium will also be issuing wildfire risk forecast for Florida and parts of Alabama and Georgia based on ENSO phase and the KBDI. Climate information and ENSO predictions are better served by incorporating them with known climate indices that are routinely used in the forestry sector. Wildfire managers and foresters operationally use the KBDI to monitor and predict wildfire activity (O'Brien et al. 2002). Meteorologists at the Florida Division of Forestry have demonstrated the validity of the KBDI as an indicator of potential wildfire activity in Florida (Long 2004). They showed that the value of the KBDI is not as important as the deviation from the monthly average. The wildfire risk forecast is based on the probabilities of KBDI anomalies and will present the probabilities associated with large deviations from the seasonal normal.
Address Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher Florida State University
Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 622
Permanent link to this record
Author Brolley, J. M.
Title Effects of ENSO, NAO (PVO), and PDO on Monthly Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2007 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords NAO, PDO, ENSO, Climate Variability, Extremes, Stochastic
Abstract The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Polar Vortex Oscillation (PVO) produce conditions favorable for monthly extreme temperatures and precipitation. These climate modes produce upper-level teleconnection patterns that favor regional droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold spells, and these extremes impact agriculture, energy, forestry, and transportation. The above sectors prefer the knowledge of the worst (and sometimes the best) case scenarios. This study examines the extreme scenarios for each phase and the combination of phases that produce the greatest monthly extremes. Data from Canada, Mexico, and the United States are gathered from the Historical Climatology Network (HCN). Monthly data are simulated by the utilization of a Monte Carlo model. This Monte Carlo method simulates monthly data by the stochastic selection of daily data with identical ENSO, PDO, and PVO (NAO) characteristics. In order to test the quality of the Monte Carlo simulation, the simulations are compared with the observations using only PDO and PVO. It has been found that temperatures and precipitation in the simulation are similar to the model. Statistics tests have favored similarities between simulations and observations in most cases. Daily data are selected in blocks of four to eight days in order to conserve temporal correlation. Because the polar vortex occurs only during the cold season, the PVO is used during January, and the NAO is used during other months. The simulated data are arranged, and the tenth and ninetieth percentiles are analyzed. The magnitudes of temperature and precipitation anomalies are the greatest in the western Canada and the southeastern United States during winter, and these anomalies are located near the Pacific North American (PNA) extrema. Western Canada has its coldest (warmest) Januaries when the PDO and PVO are low (high). The southeastern United States has its coldest Januaries with high PDO and low PVO and warmest Januaries with low PDO and high PVO. Although extremes occur during El Nino or La Nina, many stations have the highest or lowest temperatures during neutral ENSO. In California and the Gulf Coast, the driest (wettest) Januaries tend to occur during low (high) PDO, and the reverse occurs in Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, and Indiana. Summertime anomalies, on the other hand, are weak because temperature variance is low. Phase combinations that form the wettest (driest) Julies form spatially incoherent patterns. The magnitudes of the temperature and precipitation anomalies and the corresponding phase combinations vary regionally and seasonally. Composite maps of geopotential heights across North America are plot for low, median, and high temperatures at six selected sites and for low, median, and high precipitation at the same sites. The greatest fluctuations occur near the six sites and over some of the loci of the PNA pattern. Geopotential heights tend to decrease (increase) over the target stations during the cold (warm) cases, and the results for precipitation are variable.
Address Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Ph.D. thesis']
Publisher Florida State University
Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 587
Permanent link to this record
Author Culin, J. C.
Title Wintertime ENSO Variability in Wind Direction Across the Southeast United States Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2006 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Wind Roses, Southeast United States, Surface Wind Direction, ENSO, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
Abstract Changes in wind direction in association with the phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified over the Southeast region of the United States during the winter season (December-February). Wind roses, which depict the percentage of time the wind comes from each direction and can graphically identify the prevailing wind, are computed according to a 12-point compass for 24 stations in the region. Unfolding the wind rose into a 12-bin histogram visually demonstrates the peak frequencies in wind direction during each of the three (warm, cold and neutral) phases of ENSO. Normalized values represent the number of occurrences (counts) per month per ENSO phase, and comparison using percent changes illustrates the differences between phases. Based on similarities in wind direction characteristics, regional topography and results from a formal statistical test, stations are grouped into five geographic regions, with a representative station used to describe conditions in that region. Locations in South Florida show significant differences in the frequencies in wind direction from easterly directions during the cold phase and northerly directions during the warm phase. North Florida stations display cold phase southerly directions, and westerly and northerly directions during the warm phase, both of which are significant for much of the winter. Coastal Atlantic stations reveal winds from westerly directions for both phases. The Piedmont region demonstrates large variability in wind direction due to the influence from the Appalachian Mountains, but generally identifies warm phase and cold phase winds with more zonal influences rather than just from south or north. The Mountainous region also indicates southerly cold phase winds and northerly warm phase winds, but also reveals less of an influence from ENSO or significantly different distributions. Comparisons between observed patterns and those obtained using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data reveal how the model-derived observations resolve the ENSO influence on surface wind direction at selected locations. Overall, resolution of the strength of the signals is not achieved, though the depiction of the general pattern is fair at two of the three locations. Connections between the synoptic flow and surface wind direction are examined via relationships to the storm track associated with the 250 hPa jet stream and sea level pressure patterns during each extreme ENSO phase. Discussion of reasons the NCEP reanalysis illustrates surface wind direction patterns different from those derived from observations is included.
Address Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher Florida State University
Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 615
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Author Maue, R. N.
Title Evolution of Frontal Structure Associated with Extratropical Transitioning Hurricanes Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2004 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Extratropical Transition, Frontogenesis, Fronts, Quikscat, Cyclone Lifecycles, Warm Seclusion, Frontal Fracture, Potential Vorticity, Hurricane Kate, Hurricane Irene, Hurricane Fabian, Tropical Cyclones
Abstract Many tropical cyclones move poleward, encounter vertical shear associated with the midlatitude circulation, and undergo a process called extratropical transition (ET). One of the many factors affecting the post-transition extratropical storm in terms of reintensification, frontal structure, and overall evolution is the upper-level flow pattern. Schultz et al. (1998) categorized extratropical cyclones according to two of the many possible cyclone paradigms in terms of the upper-level trough configuration: The Norwegian cyclone model (Bjerknes and Solberg 1922) associated with high-amplitude diffluent trough flow and the Shapiro-Keyser cyclone lifecycle (1990) with low-amplitude confluent troughs. Broadly speaking, the former category is associated with a strong, meridionally oriented cold front with a weak warm front while the latter lifecycle usually entails a prominent, zonally oriented warm front. However, as will be shown, simple antipode lifecycle definitions fail to capture hybrid or cross-lifecycle evolution of transitioned tropical cyclones. To exemplify the importance upper-level features such as jet streaks and troughs, a potential vorticity framework is coupled with vector frontogenesis functions to diagnose the interaction between the poleward transitioning cyclone and the midlatitude circulation. Particular focus is concentrated upon the evolution and strength of frontal fracture from both a PV and frontogenesis viewpoint. The final outcome of extratropical transition is highly variable depending on characteristics of the tropical cyclone, SSTs, and environmental factors such as strength of vertical shear. Here, three storms (Irene 1999, Fabian 2003, and Kate 2003) typify the inherent variability of one such ET outcome, warm seclusion. Very strong winds are often observed in excess of 50 ms-1 along the southwestern flank of the storm down the bent-back warm front. The low-level wind field kinematics are examined using vector frontogenesis functions and QuikSCAT winds. A complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) technique is adapted to temporally interpolate ECMWF model fields (T, MSLP) to overpass times of the scatterometer, an improvement over simple linear interpolation. Overall, the above diagnosis is used to support a hypothesis concerning the prevalence of hurricane-force winds surrounding secluded systems.
Address Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher Florida State University
Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 625
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Author Maue, R
Title Warm Seclusion Extratropical Cyclones Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2010 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Tropical Cyclone, Extratropical Cyclone, Climatology, Warm Seclusion
Abstract The warm seclusion or mature stage of the extratropical cyclone lifecycle often has structural characteristics reminiscent of major tropical cyclones including eye-like moats of calm air at the barotropic warm-core center surrounded by hurricane force winds along the bent-back warm front. Many extratropical cyclones experience periods of explosive intensification or deepening (bomb) as a result of nonlinear dynamical feedbacks associated with latent heat release. Considerable dynamical structure changes occur during short time periods of several hours in which lower stratospheric and upper-tropospheric origin potential vorticity combines with ephemeral lower-tropospheric, diabatically generated potential vorticity to form a coherent, upright tower circulation. At the center, anomalously warm and moist air relative to the surrounding environment is secluded and may exist for days into the future. Even with the considerable body of research conducted during the last century, many questions remain concerning the warm seclusion process. The focus of this work is on the diagnosis, climatology, and synoptic-dynamic development of the warm seclusion and surrounding flank of intense winds. To develop a climatology of warm seclusion and explosive extratropical cyclones, current long-period reanalysis datasets are utilized along with storm tracking procedures and cyclone phase space diagnostics. Limitations of the reanalysis products are discussed with special focus on tropical cyclone diagnosis and the recent dramatic decrease in global accumulated tropical cyclone energy. A large selection of case studies is simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model using full-physics and “fake dry” adiabatic runs in order to capture the very fast warm seclusion development. Results are presented concerning the critical role of latent heat release and the combination of advective and diabatically generated potential vorticity in the generation of the coherent tower circulation characteristic of the warm seclusion. To motivate future research, issues related to predictability are discussed with focus on medium-range forecasts of varying extratropical cyclone lifecycles. Additional work is presented relating tropical cyclones and large-scale climate variability with special emphasis on the abrupt and dramatic decline in recent global tropical cyclone accumulated cyclone energy.
Address Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Ph.D. thesis']
Publisher Florida State University
Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 570
Permanent link to this record
Author May, J
Title Quantifying Variance Due to Temporal and Spatial Difference Between Ship and Satellite Winds Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2010 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords QuikSCAT, Winds, SAMOS, Error variance, Collocation
Abstract Ocean vector winds measured by the SeaWinds scatterometer onboard the QuikSCAT satellite can be validated with in situ data. Ideally the comparison in situ data would be collocated in both time and space to the satellite overpass; however, this is rarely the case because of the time sampling interval of the in situ data and the sparseness of data. To compensate for the lack of ideal collocations, in situ data that are within a certain time and space range of the satellite overpass are used for comparisons. To determine the total amount of random observational error, additional uncertainty from the temporal and spatial difference must be considered along with the uncertainty associated with the data sets. The purpose of this study is to quantify the amount of error associated with the two data sets, as well as the amount of error associated with the temporal and/or spatial difference between two observations. The variance associated with a temporal difference between two observations is initially examined in an idealized case that includes only Shipboard Automated Meteorological and Oceanographic System (SAMOS) one-minute data. Temporal differences can be translated into spatial differences by using Taylor's hypothesis. The results show that as the time difference increases, the amount of variance increases. Higher wind speeds are also associated with a larger amount of variance. Collocated SeaWinds and SAMOS observations are used to determine the total variance associated with a temporal (equivalent) difference from 0 to 60 minutes. If the combined temporal and spatial difference is less than 25 minutes (equivalent), the variance associated with the temporal and spatial difference is offset by the observational errors, which are approximately 1.0 m2s-2 for wind speeds between 4 and 7 ms-1 and approximately 1.5 m2s-2 for wind speeds between 7 and 12 ms-1. If the combined temporal and spatial difference is greater than 25 minutes (equivalent), then the variance associated with the temporal and spatial difference is no longer offset by the variance associated with observational error in the data sets; therefore, the total variance gradually increases as the time difference increases.
Address Department of Earth Ocean and Atmospheric Science
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher Florida State University
Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 575
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Author McDonald, E. M.
Title Designing Reliable Large-Scale Storage Arrays Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2007 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Raid, Mttdl, Mtbf, Mttr, Redundancy, Graid
Abstract Large-scale storage arrays are always in high demand by universities, government agencies, web search engines, and research laboratories. This unvarying need for more data storage has begun to push storage array magnitudes into an unknown stratum. As storage systems continue to outgrow the terabyte class and move into the petabyte range, these colossal arrays begin to show design limitations. This thesis focuses primarily on disk drives as the building blocks of reliable large-scale storage arrays. As a feasibility baseline, the overall reliability of large-scale storage arrays should be greater than that of a single disk. However, petabyte- and exabyte-sized systems, requiring thousands to millions of disk drives, present a serious challenge in terms of reliability. Therefore, multi-level redundancy schemes must be used in order to slow these dwindling reliabilities. This work, based upon the previous research of redundant arrays of independent disks (RAID) by Patterson et al., introduces the reliability analysis of dual- and tri-level Grouped RAID (GRAID) configurations. As storage arrays rapidly increase in size, the use of multi-level redundancy is essential. Design recommendations for various large-scale storage arrays, ranging from 100 Tebibytes (TiB) to 100 Exbibytes (EiB), can be generated using the custom reliability calculator tool written in MATLAB. The analysis of these design recommendations shows that dual-level GRAID configurations are only recommended for array magnitudes up to 5 PiB. Beyond this threshold, tri-level GRAID demonstrates feasibility for storage magnitudes up to 100 EiB and beyond.
Address Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher Florida State University
Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 611
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Author Michael, J-P
Title ENSO Fidelity in Two Coupled Models Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2010 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords General Circulation Model, El Nino, Coupled Model, Climate Model, ENSO
Abstract This study examines the fidelity of the ENSO simulation in two coupled model integrations and compares this with available global ocean data assimilation. The two models are CAM-HYCOM coupled model developed by the HYCOM Consortium and CCSM3.0. The difference between the two climate models is in the use of different ocean general circulation model (OGCM). The hybrid isopycnal-sigma-pressure coordinate ocean model Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) replaces the ocean model Parallel Ocean Program (POP) of the CCSM3.0. In both, the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is used. In this way the coupled systems are compared in a controlled setting so that the effects of the OGCM may be obtained. Henceforth the two models will be referred to as CAM-HYCOM and CAM-POP respectively. Comparison of 200 years of model output is used discarding the first 100 years to account for spin-up issues. Both models (CAM-HYCOM and CAM-POP) are compared to observational data for duration, intensity, and global impacts of ENSO. Based on the analysis of equatorial SST, thermocline depth, wind stress and precipitation, ENSO in the CAM-HYCOM model is weaker and farther east than observations while CAM-POP is zonal and extends west of the international dateline. CAM-POP also has an erroneous biennial cycle of the equatorial pacific SSTs. The analysis of the subsurface ocean advective terms highlights the problems of the model simulations.
Address Department of Earth Ocean and Atmospheric Science
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher Florida State University
Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 576
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Author Pantina, P
Title Characterizing the Variability of the Indian Monsoon: Changes in Evaporative Sources for Summertime Rainfall Events Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2010 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Variability, Trajectories, India, Monsoon, Evaporative Source, Moisture Source
Abstract This study focuses on the interannual and intraseasonal variability of evaporative sources for rainfall events during the Indian monsoon. The monsoon is an important part of the economy and lifestyle in India, thus, any improvements in our understanding of its mechanisms would be directly beneficial to society. We first discuss the use of evaporative sources for rainfall events as an important tool to help increase our knowledge of the variations of the monsoon. We then outline the variability of the monsoon on an interannual (wet and dry years) and intraseasonal (active and break periods) time scale. We use three reanalyses (NCEP-R2, CFSR, and MERRA) and an IMD gridded rainfall dataset to trace the location and strength of evaporative sources via a quasi-isentropic back trajectory program. The program uses reanalysis winds and evaporation, among other parameters, to estimate these sources back in time. We discuss the differences in parameters between the datasets on a seasonal, interannual, and intraseasonal time scale. We then thoroughly investigate the strength and location of evaporative sources between datasets on interannual and intraseasonal time scales, and we attempt to explain the variations by analyzing the differences in the input parameters and circulation mechanisms themselves. The study finds that the evaporative sources for given interannual or intraseasonal rainfall events do vary in strength and location. Interannually, the strongest change in evaporative source occurs over central India and the Arabian Sea, suggesting that the overall monsoon flow contributes moisture for Indian rainfall on this time scale. Intraseasonally, the strongest change in evaporative source occurs over the Bay of Bengal, suggesting that low pressure systems contribute moisture for Indian rainfall on this time scale. All three reanalyses yield similar fields of evaporative source. We conclude that accurate prediction of the Indian monsoon requires improved understanding of both interannual and intraseasonal oscillations since the sources of moisture for these events are unique.
Address Department of Earth Ocean and Atmospheric Science
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher Florida State University
Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 577
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Author Moroni, D. F.
Title Global and Regional Diagnostic Comparison of Air-Sea Flux Parameterizations during Episodic Events Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2008 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Parameterizations, Parameterization, Algorithm, Probability Density, Probability Distribution, Pdf, Drake Passage, Kuroshio, Gulf Stream Ect, Cold Tongue, Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Southern Oceans, Atlantic Ocean, Tropics, Sea-State
Abstract Twenty turbulent flux parameterizations are compared globally and regionally with a focus on the differences associated with episodic events. The regional focus is primarily upon the Gulf Stream and Drake Passage, as these two regions contain vastly different physical characteristics related to storm and frontal passages, varieties of sea-states, and atmospheric stability conditions. These turbulent flux parameterizations are comprised of six stress-related parameterizations [i.e., Large and Pond (1981), Large et al. (1994), Smith (1988), HEXOS (Smith et al. 1992, 1996), Taylor and Yelland (2001), and Bourassa (2006)] which are paired with a choice of three atmospheric stability parameterizations ['Neutral' assumption, Businger-Dyer (Businger 1966, Dyer 1967, Businger et al. 1971, and Dyer 1974) relations, and Beljaars-Holtslag (1991) with Benoit (1977)]. Two remaining turbulent flux algorithms are COARE version 3 (Fairall et al. 2003) and Kara et al. (2005), where Kara et al. is a polynomial curve fit approximation to COARE; these have their own separate stability considerations. The following data sets were used as a common input for parameterization: Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment version 1.0, Reynolds daily SST, and NOAA WaveWatch III. The overlapping time period for these data sets is an eight year period (1997 through 2004). Four turbulent flux diagnostics (latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, stress, curl of the stress) are computed using the above parameterizations and analyzed by way of probability distribution functions (PDFs) and RMS analyses. The differences in modeled flux consistency are shown to vary by region and season. Modeled flux consistency is determined both qualitatively (using PDF diagrams) and quantitatively (using RMS differences), where the best consistencies are found during near-neutral atmospheric stratification. Drake Passage shows the least sensitivity (in terms of the change in the tails of PDFs) to seasonal change. Specific flux diagnostics show varying degrees of consistency between stability parameterizations. For example, the Gulf Stream's latent heat flux estimates are the most inconsistent (compared to any other flux diagnostic) during episodic and non-neutral conditions. In all stability conditions, stress and the curl of stress are the most consistent modeled flux diagnostics. Sea-state is also a very important source of modeled flux inconsistencies during episodic events for both regions.
Address Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Ph.D. thesis']
Publisher Florida State University
Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 609
Permanent link to this record
