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Author Devanas, A. ; Stefanova, L.
Title Statistical Prediction Of Waterspout Probability For The Florida Keys Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2018 Publication Weather and Forecasting Abbreviated Journal Wea. Forecasting
Volume 33
Issue Pages 389-410
Keywords Regression analysis ; Forecast verification/skill ; Forecasting techniques ; Probability forecasts/models/distribution ; Statistical forecasting
Abstract A statistical model of waterspout probability was developed for wet-season (June–September) days over the Florida Keys. An analysis was performed on over 200 separate variables derived from Key West 1200 UTC daily wet-season soundings during the period 2006–14. These variables were separated into two subsets: days on which a waterspout was reported anywhere in the Florida Keys coastal waters and days on which no waterspouts were reported. Days on which waterspouts were reported were determined from the National Weather Service (NWS) Key West local storm reports. The sounding at Key West was used for this analysis since it was assumed to be representative of the atmospheric environment over the area evaluated in this study. The probability of a waterspout report day was modeled using multiple logistic regression with selected predictors obtained from the sounding variables. The final model containing eight separate variables was validated using repeated fivefold cross validation, and its performance was compared to that of an existing waterspout index used as a benchmark. The performance of the model was further validated in forecast mode using an independent verification wet-season dataset from 2015–16 that was not used to define or train the model. The eight-predictor model was found to produce a probability forecast with robust skill relative to climatology and superior to the benchmark waterspout index in both the cross validation and in the independent verification.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0882-8156
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 553
Permanent link to this record
Author DiNapoli, S
Title Determining the Error Characteristics of H*WIND Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2010 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Hurricane, Tropical Cyclones, Wind Analysis, Uncertainty
Abstract The HRD Real-time Hurricane Wind Analysis System (H*Wind) is a software application used by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division to create a gridded tropical cyclone wind analysis based on a wide range of observations. One application of H*Wind fields is calibration of scatterometers for high wind speed environments. Unfortunately, the accuracy of the H*Wind product has not been studied extensively, and therefore the accuracy of scatterometer calibrations in these environments is also unknown. This investigation seeks to determine the uncertainty in the H*Wind product and estimate the contributions of several potential error sources. These error sources include random observation errors, relative bias between different data types, temporal drift resulting from combining non-simultaneous measurements, and smoothing and interpolation errors in the H*Wind software. The effects of relative bias between different data types and random observation errors are determined by performing statistical calculations on the observed wind speeds. We show that in the absence of large biases, the total contribution of all error sources results in an uncertainty of approximately 7% near the storm center, which increases to nearly 15% near the tropical storm force wind radius. The H*Wind analysis algorithm is found to introduce a positive bias to the wind speeds near the storm center, where the analyzed wind speeds are enhanced to match the highest observations. In addition, spectral analyses are performed to ensure that the filter wavelength of the final analysis product matches user specifications. With increased knowledge of these error sources and their effects, researchers will have a better understanding of the uncertainty in the H*Wind product, and can then judge the suitability of H*Wind for various research applications
Address Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher Florida State University
Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 574
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Author DiNapoli, S.M. ; Misra, V.
Title Reconstructing the 20th century high-resolution climate of the southeastern United States Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2012 Publication Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Abbreviated Journal J. Geophys. Res.
Volume 117
Issue D19
Pages n/a-n/a
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0148-0227
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 238
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Author DiNapoli, S.M. ; Bourassa, M.A. ; Powell, M.D.
Title Uncertainty and Intercalibration Analysis of H*Wind Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2012 Publication Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology Abbreviated Journal J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol.
Volume 29
Issue 6
Pages 822-833
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0739-0572
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 249
Permanent link to this record
Author Dombrowsky, E. ; Bertino, L. ; Brassington, G. ; Chassignet, E. ; Davidson, F. ; Hurlburt, H. ; Kamachi, M. ; Lee, T. ; Martin, M. ; Mei, S. ; Tonani, M.
Title GODAE Systems in Operation Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2009 Publication Oceanography Abbreviated Journal Oceanog.
Volume 22
Issue 3
Pages 80-95
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1042-8275
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 382
Permanent link to this record
Author Domingues, R. ; Kuwano-Yoshida, A. ; Chardon-Maldonado, P. ; Todd, R.E. ; Halliwell, G. ; Kim, H.-S. ; Lin, I.-I. ; Sato, K. ; Narazaki, T. ; Shay, L.K. ; Miles, T. ; Glenn, S. ; Zhang, J.A. ; Jayne, S.R. ; Centurioni, L. ; Le Hénaff, M. ; Foltz, G.R. ; Bringas, F. ; Ali, M.M. ; DiMarco, S.F. ; Hosoda, S. ; Fukuoka, T. ; LaCour, B. ; Mehra, A. ; Sanabia, E.R. ; Gyakum, J.R. ; Dong, J. ; Knaff, J.A. ; Goni, G.
Title Ocean Observations in Support of Studies and Forecasts of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2019 Publication Frontiers in Marine Science Abbreviated Journal Front. Mar. Sci.
Volume 6
Issue Pages 446
Keywords
Abstract Over the past decade, measurements from the climate-oriented ocean observing system have been key to advancing the understanding of extreme weather events that originate and intensify over the ocean, such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical bomb cyclones (ECs). In order to foster further advancements to predict and better understand these extreme weather events, a need for a dedicated observing system component specifically to support studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs has been identified, but such a system has not yet been implemented. New technologies, pilot networks, targeted deployments of instruments, and state-of-the art coupled numerical models have enabled advances in research and forecast capabilities and illustrate a potential framework for future development. Here, applications and key results made possible by the different ocean observing efforts in support of studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs, as well as recent advances in observing technologies and strategies are reviewed. Then a vision and specific recommendations for the next decade are discussed.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2296-7745
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ user @
Serial 1043
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Author Dukhovskoy, D ; Bourassa, M
Title Comparison of ocean surface wind products in the perspective of ocean modeling of the Nordic Seas Type $loc['typeConference Article']
Year 2011 Publication OCEANS 2011 Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords scatterometer winds ; Arctic Ocean ; ocean modeling
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference MTS/IEEE OCEANS Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 315
Permanent link to this record
Author Dukhovskoy, D. ; Johnson, M. ; Proshutinsky, A.
Title Arctic decadal variability from an idealized atmosphere-ice-ocean model: 1. Model description, calibration, and validation Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2006 Publication Journal of Geophysical Research Abbreviated Journal J. Geophys. Res.
Volume 111
Issue C6
Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0148-0227
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding NSF
Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 437
Permanent link to this record
Author Dukhovskoy, D. ; Johnson, M. ; Proshutinsky, A.
Title Arctic decadal variability from an idealized atmosphere-ice-ocean model: 2. Simulation of decadal oscillations Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2006 Publication Journal of Geophysical Research Abbreviated Journal J. Geophys. Res.
Volume 111
Issue C6
Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0148-0227
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 436
Permanent link to this record
Author Dukhovskoy, D.S.
Title Arctic decadal variability: An auto-oscillatory system of heat and fresh water exchange Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2004 Publication Geophysical Research Letters Abbreviated Journal Geophys. Res. Lett.
Volume 31
Issue 3
Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0094-8276
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding NSF
Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 461
Permanent link to this record
