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Author Deng, J. ; Wu, Z. ; Zhang, M. ; Huang, N.E. ; Wang, S. ; Qiao, F.
Title Data concerning statistical relation between obliquity and Dansgaard-Oeschger events Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2019 Publication Abbreviated Journal Data Brief
Volume 23
Issue Pages
Keywords Dansgaard-Oeschger events ; Obliquity ; Surrogate data ; Time-varying Shannon entropy
Abstract Data presented are related to the research article entitled “Using Holo-Hilbert spectral analysis to quantify the modulation of Dansgaard-Oeschger events by obliquity” (J. Deng et al., 2018). The datasets in Deng et al. (2018) are analyzed on the foundation of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) (Z.H. Wu and N.E. Huang, 2009), and reveal more occurrences of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events in the decreasing phase of obliquity. Here, we report the number of significant high Shannon entropy (SE) (C.E. Shannon and W. Weaver, 1949) of 95% significance level of DO events in the increasing and decreasing phases of obliquity, respectively. First, the proxy time series are filtered by EEMD to obtain DO events. Then, the time-varying SE of DO modes are calculated on the basis of principle of histogram. The 95% significance level is evaluated through surrogate data (T. Schreiber and A. Schmitz, 1996). Finally, a comparison between the numbers of SE values that are larger than 95% significance level in the increasing and decreasing phases of obliquity, respectively, is reported.
Address Key Laboratory of Marine Sciences and Numerical Modelling, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, PR China
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English
Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2352-3409
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding strtoupper('3').strtolower('1372394'); strtoupper('P').strtolower('MC6660458')
Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ user @
Serial 1068
Permanent link to this record
Author Devanas, A. ; Stefanova, L.
Title Statistical Prediction Of Waterspout Probability For The Florida Keys Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2018 Publication Weather and Forecasting Abbreviated Journal Wea. Forecasting
Volume 33
Issue Pages 389-410
Keywords Regression analysis ; Forecast verification/skill ; Forecasting techniques ; Probability forecasts/models/distribution ; Statistical forecasting
Abstract A statistical model of waterspout probability was developed for wet-season (June–September) days over the Florida Keys. An analysis was performed on over 200 separate variables derived from Key West 1200 UTC daily wet-season soundings during the period 2006–14. These variables were separated into two subsets: days on which a waterspout was reported anywhere in the Florida Keys coastal waters and days on which no waterspouts were reported. Days on which waterspouts were reported were determined from the National Weather Service (NWS) Key West local storm reports. The sounding at Key West was used for this analysis since it was assumed to be representative of the atmospheric environment over the area evaluated in this study. The probability of a waterspout report day was modeled using multiple logistic regression with selected predictors obtained from the sounding variables. The final model containing eight separate variables was validated using repeated fivefold cross validation, and its performance was compared to that of an existing waterspout index used as a benchmark. The performance of the model was further validated in forecast mode using an independent verification wet-season dataset from 2015–16 that was not used to define or train the model. The eight-predictor model was found to produce a probability forecast with robust skill relative to climatology and superior to the benchmark waterspout index in both the cross validation and in the independent verification.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0882-8156
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 553
Permanent link to this record
Author DiNapoli, S
Title Determining the Error Characteristics of H*WIND Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2010 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Hurricane, Tropical Cyclones, Wind Analysis, Uncertainty
Abstract The HRD Real-time Hurricane Wind Analysis System (H*Wind) is a software application used by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division to create a gridded tropical cyclone wind analysis based on a wide range of observations. One application of H*Wind fields is calibration of scatterometers for high wind speed environments. Unfortunately, the accuracy of the H*Wind product has not been studied extensively, and therefore the accuracy of scatterometer calibrations in these environments is also unknown. This investigation seeks to determine the uncertainty in the H*Wind product and estimate the contributions of several potential error sources. These error sources include random observation errors, relative bias between different data types, temporal drift resulting from combining non-simultaneous measurements, and smoothing and interpolation errors in the H*Wind software. The effects of relative bias between different data types and random observation errors are determined by performing statistical calculations on the observed wind speeds. We show that in the absence of large biases, the total contribution of all error sources results in an uncertainty of approximately 7% near the storm center, which increases to nearly 15% near the tropical storm force wind radius. The H*Wind analysis algorithm is found to introduce a positive bias to the wind speeds near the storm center, where the analyzed wind speeds are enhanced to match the highest observations. In addition, spectral analyses are performed to ensure that the filter wavelength of the final analysis product matches user specifications. With increased knowledge of these error sources and their effects, researchers will have a better understanding of the uncertainty in the H*Wind product, and can then judge the suitability of H*Wind for various research applications
Address Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher Florida State University
Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 574
Permanent link to this record
Author Domingues, R. ; Kuwano-Yoshida, A. ; Chardon-Maldonado, P. ; Todd, R.E. ; Halliwell, G. ; Kim, H.-S. ; Lin, I.-I. ; Sato, K. ; Narazaki, T. ; Shay, L.K. ; Miles, T. ; Glenn, S. ; Zhang, J.A. ; Jayne, S.R. ; Centurioni, L. ; Le Hénaff, M. ; Foltz, G.R. ; Bringas, F. ; Ali, M.M. ; DiMarco, S.F. ; Hosoda, S. ; Fukuoka, T. ; LaCour, B. ; Mehra, A. ; Sanabia, E.R. ; Gyakum, J.R. ; Dong, J. ; Knaff, J.A. ; Goni, G.
Title Ocean Observations in Support of Studies and Forecasts of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2019 Publication Frontiers in Marine Science Abbreviated Journal Front. Mar. Sci.
Volume 6
Issue Pages 446
Keywords
Abstract Over the past decade, measurements from the climate-oriented ocean observing system have been key to advancing the understanding of extreme weather events that originate and intensify over the ocean, such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical bomb cyclones (ECs). In order to foster further advancements to predict and better understand these extreme weather events, a need for a dedicated observing system component specifically to support studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs has been identified, but such a system has not yet been implemented. New technologies, pilot networks, targeted deployments of instruments, and state-of-the art coupled numerical models have enabled advances in research and forecast capabilities and illustrate a potential framework for future development. Here, applications and key results made possible by the different ocean observing efforts in support of studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs, as well as recent advances in observing technologies and strategies are reviewed. Then a vision and specific recommendations for the next decade are discussed.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2296-7745
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ user @
Serial 1043
Permanent link to this record
Author Dukhovskoy, D. S. ; Morey, S. L. ; O'Brien, J. J.
Title Topographic Rossby Waves in a Z-Level Ocean Model Type $loc['typeReport']
Year 2005 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages 03.05-03.06
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher World Meteorological Organization
Place of Publication Geneva, Switzerland
Editor Cote, J.
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Research Activities in Atmospheric and Ocean Modeling, Report No. 35
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding ONR, NASA
Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 903
Permanent link to this record
Author Dukhovskoy, D. S. ; Morey, S. L. ; O'Brien, J. J.
Title Topographic Rossby waves in a z-level ocean model Type $loc['typeMagazine Article']
Year 2005 Publication Eos Trans. AGU Abbreviated Journal
Volume 86
Issue 18
Pages Jt. Assem. Suppl., Abstract OS22A-06
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding ONR, NASA
Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 909
Permanent link to this record
Author Dukhovskoy, D. S. ; Morey, S. L. ; O'Brien, J. J.
Title Baroclinic topographic waves on the Nicaragua Shelf generated by tropical cyclones Type $loc['typeReport']
Year 2006 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher World Meteorological Organization
Place of Publication Geneva, Switzerland
Editor Cote, J.
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Research Activities in Atmospheric and Ocean Modeling, Report No. 36
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding ONR, NASA
Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 924
Permanent link to this record
Author Dukhovskoy, D.S. ; Yashayaev, I. ; Proshutinsky, A. ; Bamber, J.L. ; Bashmachnikov, I.L. ; Chassignet, E.P. ; Lee, C.M. ; Tedstone, A.J.
Title Role of Greenland Freshwater Anomaly in the Recent Freshening of the Subpolar North Atlantic Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2019 Publication Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Abbreviated Journal J. Geophys. Res. Oceans
Volume 124
Issue 5
Pages 3333-3360
Keywords Greenland ice sheet melting ; freshwater anomaly ; subpolar North Atlantic ; subpolar gyre ; passive tracer numerical experiment ; freshwater budget
Abstract The cumulative Greenland freshwater flux anomaly has exceeded 5000 km3 since the 1990s. The volume of this surplus fresh water is expected to cause substantial freshening in the North Atlantic. Analysis of hydrographic observations in the subpolar seas reveal freshening signals in the 2010s. The sources of this freshening are yet to be determined. In this study, the relationship between the surplus Greenland freshwater flux and this freshening is tested by analyzing the propagation of the Greenland freshwater anomaly and its impact on salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic based on observational data and numerical experiments with and without the Greenland runoff. A passive tracer is continuously released during the simulations at freshwater sources along the coast of Greenland to track the Greenland freshwater anomaly. Tracer budget analysis shows that 44% of the volume of the Greenland freshwater anomaly is retained in the subpolar North Atlantic by the end of the simulation. This volume is sufficient to cause strong freshening in the subpolar seas if it stays in the upper 50�100 m. However, in the model the anomaly is mixed down to several hundred meters of the water column resulting in smaller magnitudes of freshening compared to the observations. Therefore, the simulations suggest that the accelerated Greenland melting would not be sufficient to cause the observed freshening in the subpolar seas and other sources of fresh water have contributed to the freshening. Impacts on salinity in the subpolar seas of the freshwater transport through Fram Strait and precipitation are discussed.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2169-9275
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ user @
Serial 1029
Permanent link to this record
Author Engelman, M. B.
Title A Validation of the FSU/COAPS Climate Model Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2008 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Crop Models, Skill Scores, Seasonal Prediction, Extreme Events
Abstract This study examines the predictability of the Florida State University/Center for Oceanic and Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU/COAPS) climate model, and is motivated by the model's potential use in crop modeling. The study also compares real-time ensemble runs (created using persisted SST anomalies) to hindcast ensemble runs (created using weekly updated SST) to asses the effect of SST anomalies on forecast error. Wintertime (DJF, 2 month lead time) surface temperature and precipitation forecasts over the southeastern United States (Georgia, Alabama, and Florida) are evaluated because of the documented links between tropical Pacific SST anomalies and climate in the southeastern United States during the winter season. The global spectral model (GSM) runs at a T63 resolution and then is dynamically downscaled to a 20 x 20 km grid over the southeastern United States using the FSU regional spectral model (RSM). Seasonal, monthly, and daily events from the October 2004 and 2005 model runs are assessed. Seasonal (DJF) plots of real-time forecasts indicate the model is capable of predicting wintertime maximum and minimum temperatures over the southeastern United States. The October 2004 and 2005 real-time model runs both produce temperature forecasts with anomaly errors below 3°C, correlations close to one, and standard deviations similar to observations. Real-time precipitation forecasts are inconsistent. Error in the percent of normal precipitation vary from greater than 100% in the 2004/2005 forecasts to less than 35% error in the 2005/2006 forecasts. Comparing hindcast runs to real-time runs reveals some skill is lost in precipitation forecasts when using a method of SST anomaly persistence if the SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific change early in the forecast period, as they did for the October 2004 model runs. Further analysis involving monthly and daily model data as well as Brier scores (BS), relative operating characteristics (ROC), and equitable threat scores (ETS), are also examined to confirm these results.
Address Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher Florida State University
Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 607
Permanent link to this record
Author Enloe, J.
Title ENSO impacts on peak wind gusts in the United States Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2002 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Address Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 629
Permanent link to this record
