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FSU COAPS Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
The 2014 calls for a 70 percent probability of 5 to 9 named storms, including 2 to 6 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 7 named storms, including 4 hurricanes, and an average accumulated cyclone energy (a measure of the strength and duration of storms accumulated during the season) of 60.
Scientists at COAPS use a numerical climate model developed at Florida State to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters. FSU is the only university in the United States issuing a seasonal hurricane forecast using a global numerical atmospheric model. The model uses the high performance computers at FSU to make predictions of the atmosphere six months into the future. Based on these atmospheric predictions, tropical activity is objectively determined and forecasts are issued around June 1st.
Details about past forecasts are archived here.
To learn more about this forecast, see the following articles:
- LaRow, T. E., 2013: The impact of SST bias correction on North Atlantic hurricane retrospective forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 141, 490-498, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00152.1.
- LaRow, T. E., L. Stefanova, D. W. Shin and S. Cocke, 2010: Seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone hindcasting/forecasting using two sea surface temperature datasets. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02804, doi:10.1029/2009GL041459.
2014 Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 - November 30) predictions and observed activity.
|Forecasting Group||Forecasting Method||Forecast Issue Date||Total Named Storms (Tropical Storms + Hurricanes)||Hurricanes||Accumulated Cyclone Energy|
|FSU COAPS||Dynamical||5/29/14||70% change of 5-9||70% chance of 2-6||60|
|NOAA||Hybrid||5/22/14||70% probability of 8-13||70% probability of 3-6||70% probability of 40%-100% of median|
|UK Met Office||Dynamical||5/16/14||10 (70% chance of 7-13)||6 (70% chance of 3-9)||84 (70% chance of 47-121)|
|Colorado State University||Statistical||6/2/14||10||4||65|
|North Carolina State University||Statistical||4/15/14||8-11||4-6||N/A|
|Tropical Storm Risk||Statistical||4/7/14||12 (+/-4)||5 (+/-3)||75 (+/-57)|
|Weather Services International||Statistical||5/19/14||11||5|
|2014 Observed||N/A||N/A||8 (as of 10/27/14)||6 (as of 10/27/14)|
|Average Observed per Season, 1981-2011||N/A||N/A||12.3||6.5||104.4|
*For the latest updates on hurricane activity, visit the National Hurricane Center.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) also releases a forecast for the abbreviated August 1 - October 31 peak Atlantic hurricane season. The IRI forecast can be found at http://iri.columbia.edu/forecast/tc_fcst/north_atlantic/.