Stukel, M. R., Decima, M., & Kelly, T. B. (2018). A new approach for incorporating 15N isotopic data into linear inverse ecosystem models with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. PLoS One, 13(6), e0199123.
Abstract: Oceanographic field programs often use delta15N biogeochemical measurements and in situ rate measurements to investigate nitrogen cycling and planktonic ecosystem structure. However, integrative modeling approaches capable of synthesizing these distinct measurement types are lacking. We develop a novel approach for incorporating delta15N isotopic data into existing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) random walk methods for solving linear inverse ecosystem models. We test the ability of this approach to recover food web indices (nitrate uptake, nitrogen fixation, zooplankton trophic level, and secondary production) derived from forward models simulating the planktonic ecosystems of the California Current and Amazon River Plume. We show that the MCMC with delta15N approach typically does a better job of recovering ecosystem structure than the standard MCMC or L2 minimum norm (L2MN) approaches, and also outperforms an L2MN with delta15N approach. Furthermore, we find that the MCMC with delta15N approach is robust to the removal of input equations and hence is well suited to typical pelagic ecosystem studies for which the system is usually vastly under-constrained. Our approach is easily extendable for use with delta13C isotopic measurements or variable carbon:nitrogen stoichiometry.
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Coles, V. J., Stukel, M. R., Brooks, M. T., Burd, A., Crump, B. C., Moran, M. A., et al. (2017). Ocean biogeochemistry modeled with emergent trait-based genomics. Science, 358(6367), 1149–1154.
Abstract: Marine ecosystem models have advanced to incorporate metabolic pathways discovered with genomic sequencing, but direct comparisons between models and “omics” data are lacking. We developed a model that directly simulates metagenomes and metatranscriptomes for comparison with observations. Model microbes were randomly assigned genes for specialized functions, and communities of 68 species were simulated in the Atlantic Ocean. Unfit organisms were replaced, and the model self-organized to develop community genomes and transcriptomes. Emergent communities from simulations that were initialized with different cohorts of randomly generated microbes all produced realistic vertical and horizontal ocean nutrient, genome, and transcriptome gradients. Thus, the library of gene functions available to the community, rather than the distribution of functions among specific organisms, drove community assembly and biogeochemical gradients in the model ocean.
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Proshutinsky, A., Krishfield, R., Toole, J. M., Timmermans, M. - L., Williams, W., Zimmermann, S., et al. (2019). Analysis of the Beaufort Gyre Freshwater Content in 2003-2018. J Geophys Res Oceans, 124(12).
Abstract: Hydrographic data collected from research cruises, bottom-anchored moorings, drifting Ice-Tethered Profilers, and satellite altimetry in the Beaufort Gyre region of the Arctic Ocean document an increase of more than 6,400 km(3) of liquid freshwater content from 2003 to 2018: a 40% growth relative to the climatology of the 1970s. This fresh water accumulation is shown to result from persistent anticyclonic atmospheric wind forcing (1997-2018) accompanied by sea ice melt, a wind-forced redirection of Mackenzie River discharge from predominantly eastward to westward flow, and a contribution of low salinity waters of Pacific Ocean origin via Bering Strait. Despite significant uncertainties in the different observations, this study has demonstrated the synergistic value of having multiple diverse datasets to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of Beaufort Gyre freshwater content variability. For example, Beaufort Gyre Observational System (BGOS) surveys clearly show the interannual increase in freshwater content, but without satellite or Ice-Tethered Profiler measurements, it is not possible to resolve the seasonal cycle of freshwater content, which in fact is larger than the year-to-year variability, or the more subtle interannual variations.
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Proshutinsky, A., Krishfield, R., Toole, J. M., Timmermans, M. - L., Williams, W., Zimmermann, S., et al. (2019). Analysis of the Beaufort Gyre Freshwater Content in 2003-2018. J Geophys Res Oceans, 124(12), 9658–9689.
Abstract: Hydrographic data collected from research cruises, bottom-anchored moorings, drifting Ice-Tethered Profilers, and satellite altimetry in the Beaufort Gyre region of the Arctic Ocean document an increase of more than 6,400 km(3) of liquid freshwater content from 2003 to 2018: a 40% growth relative to the climatology of the 1970s. This fresh water accumulation is shown to result from persistent anticyclonic atmospheric wind forcing (1997-2018) accompanied by sea ice melt, a wind-forced redirection of Mackenzie River discharge from predominantly eastward to westward flow, and a contribution of low salinity waters of Pacific Ocean origin via Bering Strait. Despite significant uncertainties in the different observations, this study has demonstrated the synergistic value of having multiple diverse datasets to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of Beaufort Gyre freshwater content variability. For example, Beaufort Gyre Observational System (BGOS) surveys clearly show the interannual increase in freshwater content, but without satellite or Ice-Tethered Profiler measurements, it is not possible to resolve the seasonal cycle of freshwater content, which in fact is larger than the year-to-year variability, or the more subtle interannual variations.
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Todd, A., D. Dukhovskoy, M. Griffin. (2009). Effectiveness of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index toward the estimation of fires in Florida. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, , submitted.
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Mahalakshmi, D. V., Paul, A., Dutta, D., Ali, M. M., Dadhwal, V. K., REddy, R. S., et al. (2016). Estimation of net surface radiation using eddy flux tower data over a tropical mangrove forest of Sundarban, West Bengal. Geofizika, 33(1), 1–14.
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Chakraborty, A., Sharma, R., Kumar, R., & Basu, S. (2014). An OGCM assessment of blended OSCAT winds. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 119(1), 173–186.
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Selman, C., & Misra, V. (2015). Simulating diurnal variations over the southeastern United States. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120(1), 180–198.
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Dukhovskoy, D. S., Ubnoske, J., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Hiester, H. R., & Proshutinsky, A. (2015). Skill metrics for evaluation and comparison of sea ice models. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 120(9), 5910–5931.
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Stukel, M. R., Kahru, M., Benitez-Nelson, C. R., Décima, M., Goericke, R., Landry, M. R., et al. (2015). Using Lagrangian-based process studies to test satellite algorithms of vertical carbon flux in the eastern North Pacific Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 120(11), 7208–7222.
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