Vinayachandran, P. N., Davidson, F., & Chassignet, E. P. (2020). Towards joint assessments, modern capabilities and new links for ocean prediction systems. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101(4).
Abstract: Approximately 260 individuals from forecasting centers, research laboratories, academia, and industry representing 40 countries met to discuss recent developments in operational oceanography and brainstorm about the future directions of ocean prediction services.
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Zou, S., Lozier, M. S., & Xu, X. (2020). Latitudinal Structure of the Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability on Interannual to Decadal Time Scales in the North Atlantic Ocean. J. Climate, 33(9), 3845–3862.
Abstract: The latitudinal structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the North Atlantic is investigated using numerical results from three ocean circulation simulations over the past four to five decades. We show that AMOC variability south of the Labrador Sea (53°N) to 25°N can be decomposed into a latitudinally coherent component and a gyre-opposing component. The latitudinally coherent component contains both decadal and interannual variabilities. The coherent decadal AMOC variability originates in the subpolar region and is reflected by the zonal density gradient in that basin. It is further shown to be linked to persistent North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions in all three models. The interannual AMOC variability contained in the latitudinally coherent component is shown to be driven by westerlies in the transition region between the subpolar and the subtropical gyre (40°–50°N), through significant responses in Ekman transport. Finally, the gyre-opposing component principally varies on interannual time scales and responds to local wind variability related to the annual NAO. The contribution of these components to the total AMOC variability is latitude-dependent: 1) in the subpolar region, all models show that the latitudinally coherent component dominates AMOC variability on interannual to decadal time scales, with little contribution from the gyre-opposing component, and 2) in the subtropical region, the gyre-opposing component explains a majority of the interannual AMOC variability in two models, while in the other model, the contributions from the coherent and the gyre-opposing components are comparable. These results provide a quantitative decomposition of AMOC variability across latitudes and shed light on the linkage between different AMOC variability components and atmospheric forcing mechanisms.
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Mende, M., & Misra, V. (2020). Time to Flatten the Curves on COVID-19 and Climate Change. Marketing Can Help. Journal of Public Policy & Marketing, .
Abstract: The health, economic, and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in our lifetime, and no individual in this globalized, interconnected world is immune from its effects. This pandemic is a fundamental challenge for consumers, companies, and governments. Against this background, our commentary underscores linkages between public health, environment, and economy and explores how lessons from COVID-19 can help prevent other large-scale disasters.1 We focus on global climate change (GCC), because rising temperatures increase the likelihood of future pandemics.2 Accordingly, experts consider GCC “the largest public health threat of the century” (Wyns 2020). Although societal crises are underresearched in marketing, we propose that marketers should add their expertise to help avoid future crises. Notably, the Journal of Public Policy & Marketing (JPP&M) is uniquely positioned as a premier outlet for corresponding research at the intersection of marketing and policy.
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Laurencin, C., & Misra, V. (2018). Characterizing the Variations of the motion of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Meteorol Atmos Phys, 130(303), 1–12.
Abstract: In this study, we examine the seasonal and interannual variability of the North Atlantic (NATL) tropical cyclone (TC) motion from the historical Hurricane Database (HURDAT2) over the period 1988-2014. We characterize these motions based on their position, lifecycle, and seasonal cycle. The main findings of this study include: (1) of the 11,469 NATL TC fixes examined between 1988 and 2014, 81% of them had a translation speed of < 20 mph; (2) TCs in the deep tropics of the NATL are invariably slow-moving in comparison with TCs in higher latitudes. Although fast-moving TCs (> 40 mph) are exclusively found north of 30 N, the slow-moving TCs have a wide range of latitude. This is largely a consequence of the background steering flow being weaker (stronger) in the tropical (higher) latitudes with a minimum around the subtropical latitudes of NATL; (3) there is an overall decrease in the frequency of all categories of translation speed of TCs in warm relative to cold El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. However, in terms of the percentage change, TCs with a translation speed in the range of 10-20 mph display the most change (42%) in warm relative to cold ENSO years; and (4) there is an overall decrease in frequency across all categories of TC translation speed in small relative to large Atlantic Warm Pool years, but in terms of percentage change in the frequency of TCs, there is a significant and comparable change in the frequency over a wider range of translation speeds than the ENSO composites. This last finding suggests that Atlantic Warm Pool variations have a more profound impact on the translation speed of Atlantic TCs than ENSO.
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Misra, V., Bhardwaj, A., & Mishra, A. (2018). Local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon. Climate Dynamics, 51(5-6), 1609–1622.
Abstract: This paper introduces an objective definition of local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) at the native grid of the Indian Meteorological Department's rainfall analysis based on more than 100 years of rain gauge observations. The variability of the local onset/demise of the ISM is shown to be closely associated with the All India averaged rainfall onset/demise. This association is consistent with the corresponding evolution of the slow large-scale reversals of upper air and ocean variables that raise the hope of predictability of local onset and demise of the ISM. The local onset/demise of the ISM also show robust internannual variations associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole mode. It is also shown that the early monsoon rains over northeast India has a predictive potential for the following seasonal anomalies of rainfall and seasonal length of the monsoon over rest of India.
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Misra, V., Bhardwaj, A., & Mishra, A. (2018). Characterizing the rainy season of Peninsular Florida. Climate Dynamics, 51(5-6), 2157–2167.
Abstract: Peninsular Florida (PF) has a very distinct wet season that can be objectively defined with onset and demise dates based on daily rainfall. The dramatic onset of rains and its retreat coincides with the seasonal cycle of the regional scale atmospheric and upper ocean circulations and upper ocean heat content of the immediate surrounding ocean. The gradual warming of the Intra-Americas Seas (IAS; includes Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and parts of northwestern subtropical Atlantic Ocean) with the seasonal evolution of the Loop Current and increased atmospheric heat flux in to the ocean eventually enhance the moisture flux into terrestrial PF around the time of the onset of the Rainy Season of PF (RSPF). Similarly, the RSPF retreats with the cooling of the IAS that coincides with the weakening of the Loop Current and reduction of the upper ocean heat content of the IAS. It is also shown that anomalous onset and demise dates of the RSPF have implications on its seasonal rainfall anomalies.
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Glazer, R. H., & Misra, V. (2018). Ice versus liquid water saturation in simulations of the Indian summer monsoon. Climate Dynamics, .
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Laurencin, C. N., & Misra, V. (2017). Characterizing the Variations of the motion of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, .
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Bhardwaj, A., Misra, V., Mishra, A., Wootten, A., Boyles, R., Bowden, J. H., et al. (2018). Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Climatic Change, 147(1-2), 133–147.
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Bellow, J., A. Mokssit, J. O'Brien, and R. Sebbari. (2008). Building national and specialised climate services. In A. Troccoli, M. Harrison, D. L. T. Anderson, & S. Mason (Eds.), Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk (pp. 315–349). Springer.
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