|
Tartaglione, C. A., Smith, S. R., & O'Brien, J. J. (2003). ENSO Impact on Hurricane Landfall Probabilities for the Caribbean. J. Climate, 16(17), 2925–2931.
|
|
Krishnamurti, T. N., Kishtawal, C. M., Shin, D. W., & Williford, C. E. (2000). Improving Tropical Precipitation Forecasts from a Multianalysis Superensemble. J. Climate, 13(23), 4217–4227.
|
|
Patten, J. M., Smith, S. R., & O'Brien, J. J. (2003). Impacts of ENSO on Snowfall Frequencies in the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 18(5), 965–980.
|
|
Weissman, D. E., Bourassa, M. A., & Tongue, J. (2002). Effects of Rain Rate and Wind Magnitude on SeaWinds Scatterometer Wind Speed Errors. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 19(5), 738–746.
|
|
Smith, S. R., Bourassa, M. A., & Sharp, R. J. (1999). Establishing More Truth in True Winds. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 16(7), 939–952.
|
|
Melsom, A., Meyers, S. D., O'Brien, J. J., Hurlburt, H. E., & Metzger, J. E. (1999). ENSO Effects on Gulf of Alaska Eddies. Earth Interact., 3(1), 1–30.
|
|
Williford, C. E., Krishnamurti, T. N., Torres, R. C., Cocke, S., Christidis, Z., & Vijaya Kumar, T. S. (2003). Real-Time Multimodel Superensemble Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Systems of 1999. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131(8), 1878–1894.
|
Devanas, A., & Stefanova, L. (2018). Statistical Prediction Of Waterspout Probability For The Florida Keys. Wea. Forecasting, 33, 389–410.
Abstract: A statistical model of waterspout probability was developed for wet-season (June–September) days over the Florida Keys. An analysis was performed on over 200 separate variables derived from Key West 1200 UTC daily wet-season soundings during the period 2006–14. These variables were separated into two subsets: days on which a waterspout was reported anywhere in the Florida Keys coastal waters and days on which no waterspouts were reported. Days on which waterspouts were reported were determined from the National Weather Service (NWS) Key West local storm reports. The sounding at Key West was used for this analysis since it was assumed to be representative of the atmospheric environment over the area evaluated in this study. The probability of a waterspout report day was modeled using multiple logistic regression with selected predictors obtained from the sounding variables. The final model containing eight separate variables was validated using repeated fivefold cross validation, and its performance was compared to that of an existing waterspout index used as a benchmark. The performance of the model was further validated in forecast mode using an independent verification wet-season dataset from 2015–16 that was not used to define or train the model. The eight-predictor model was found to produce a probability forecast with robust skill relative to climatology and superior to the benchmark waterspout index in both the cross validation and in the independent verification.
|
Ahern, K., Bourassa, M. A., Hart, R. E., Zhang, J. A., & Rogers, R. F. (2019). Observed Kinematic and Thermodynamic Structure in the Hurricane Boundary Layer During Intensity Change. Mon. Wea. Rev., .
Abstract: The axisymmetric structure of the inner-core hurricane boundary layer (BL) during intensification [IN; intensity tendency ≥ 20 kt (24 h)−1], weakening [WE; intensity tendency < −10 kt (24 h)−1], and steady-state [SS; the remainder] periods are analyzed using composites of GPS dropwindsondes from reconnaissance missions between 1998 and 2015. A total of 3,091 dropsondes were composited for analysis below 2.5 km elevation—1,086 during IN, 1,042 during WE, and 963 during SS. In non-intensifying hurricanes, the lowlevel tangential wind is greater outside the radius of maximum wind (RMW) than for intensifying hurricanes, implying higher inertial stability (I) at those radii for non-intensifying hurricanes. Differences in tangential wind structure (and I) between the groups also imply differences in secondary circulation. The IN radial inflow layer is of nearly equal or greater thickness than nonintensifying groups, and all groups show an inflow maximum just outside the RMW. Non-intensifying hurricanes have stronger inflow outside the eyewall region, likely associated with frictionally forced ascent out of the BL and enhanced subsidence into the BL at radii outside the RMW. Equivalent potential temperatures (θe) and conditional stability are highest inside the RMW of non-intensifying storms, which is potentially related to TC intensity. At greater radii, inflow layer θe is lowest in WE hurricanes, suggesting greater subsidence or more convective downdrafts at those radii compared to IN and SS hurricanes. Comparisons of prior observational and theoretical studies are highlighted, especially those relating BL structure to large-scale vortex structure, convection, and intensity.
|
Misra, V., & Bhardwaj, A. (2019). Defining the Northeast Monsoon of India. Mon. Wea. Rev., 147(3), 791–807.
Abstract: This study introduces an objective definition for onset and demise of the Northeast Indian Monsoon (NEM). The definition is based on the land surface temperature analysis over the Indian subcontinent. It is diagnosed from the inflection points in the daily anomaly cumulative curve of the area-averaged surface temperature over the provinces of Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, and Tamil Nadu located in the southeastern part of India. Per this definition, the climatological onset and demise dates of the NEM season are 6 November and 13 March, respectively. The composite evolution of the seasonal cycle of 850hPa winds, surface wind stress, surface ocean currents, and upper ocean heat content suggest a seasonal shift around the time of the diagnosed onset and demise dates of the NEM season. The interannual variations indicate onset date variations have a larger impact than demise date variations on the seasonal length, seasonal anomalies of rainfall, and surface temperature of the NEM. Furthermore, it is shown that warm El Niño�Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes are associated with excess seasonal rainfall, warm seasonal land surface temperature anomalies, and reduced lengths of the NEM season. Likewise, cold ENSO episodes are likely to be related to seasonal deficit rainfall anomalies, cold land surface temperature anomalies, and increased lengths of the NEM season.
|
