2013 Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 - November 30) predictions and observed activity.
Forecasting Group | Forecasting Method | Forecast Issue Date | Total Named Storms (Tropical Storms + Hurricanes) | Hurricanes | Accumulated Cyclone Energy |
FSU COAPS | Dynamical | 5/30/13 | 15 (70% chance of 12-17) | 8 (70% chance of 5-10) | 135 |
NOAA | Hybrid | 5/23/13 | 70% chance of 13-20 | 70% chance of 7-11 | 70% chance of 120%-205% of median |
UK Met Office | Dynamical | 5/15/13 | 14 (70% chance of 10-18) | 9 (70% chance of 4-14) | 130 (70% chance of 76-184) |
Colorado State University | Statistical | 6/3/13 | 18 | 9 | 165 |
Tropical Storm Risk | Statistical | 4/5/13 | 15 (+/-4.1) | 7.5 (+/-2.8) | 131 (+/-55) |
Weather Services International | Statistical | 4/8/13 | 16 | 9 | N/A |
2013 Observed | N/A | N/A | 13 | 2 | 33 |
Average Observed per Season, 1981-2011 | N/A | N/A | 12.3 | 6.5 | 104.4 |
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) also releases a forecast for the abbreviated August 1 - October 31 peak Atlantic hurricane season. The IRI forecast can be found at http://iri.columbia.edu/forecast/tc_fcst/north_atlantic/.
2012 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and observed activity.
Forecasting Group | Forecasting Method | Forecast Issue Date | Total Named Storms (Tropical Storms + Hurricanes) | Hurricanes | Accumulated Cyclone Energy |
FSU COAPS | Dynamical | 5/30/12 | 13 (70% chance of 10-16) | 7 (70% chance of 5-9) | 122 |
NOAA | Hybrid | 8/9/12 | 70% chance of 12-17 | 70% chance of 5-8 | 70% chance of 75%-135% of the median (which is 87.5 for 1950-2000) |
UK Met Office | Dynamical | 5/24/12 | 10 (70% chance of 7-13) | N/A | 90 (70% chance of 28-152) |
Colorado State University | Statistical | 4/4/12 | 10 | 4 | 70 |
Tropical Storm Risk | Statistical | 5/23/12 | 12.7 (+/-3.9) | 5.7 (+/-2.7) | 98 (+/-52) |
2012 Observed | N/A | N/A | 19 | 10 | 123 |
Average Observed per Season, 1981-2010 | N/A | N/A | 12 | 6 | 104 |
2011 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and observed activity.
Forecasting Group | Forecasting Method | Forecast Issue Date | Total Named Storms (Tropical Storms + Hurricanes) | Hurricanes | Accumulated Cyclone Energy |
FSU COAPS | Dynamical | 6/1/11 | 17 (70% chance of 14-20) | 9 (70% chance of 7-10) | 163 (70% chance of 130-183) |
NOAA | Hybrid | 5/19/11 | 12-18 | 6-10 | 105%-200% of 1981-2010 median |
UK Met Office | Dynamical | 5/26/11 | 13 (70% chance of 10-17) | N/A | 151 (70% chance 82-212) |
Colorado State University | Statistical | 6/1/11 | 16 | 9 | 160 |
Tropical Storm Risk | Statistical | 6/6/11 | 14.1 (+/-3.4) | 7.6 (+/-2.4) | 123 (+/-48) |
Observed | N/A | N/A | 18 (19 total tropical storms) | 7 | 123 |
2010 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and observed activity.
Forecasting Group | Forecasting Method | Forecast Issue Date | Named Storms | Hurricanes | Accumulated Cyclone Energy |
FSU COAPS | Dynamical | 6/1/10 | 17 | 10 | 156 |
NOAA | Hybrid | 5/27/10 | 14-23 | 8-14 | 155-270% of median |
UK Met Office | Dynamical | 6/17/10 | 20 (70% chance of 10-17) | N/A | 204 (70% chance of 90-319) |
Colorado State University | Statistical | 6/2/10 | 18 | 10 | 85 |
Tropical Storm Risk | Statistical | 6/4/10 | 17.7 (+/-3.5) | 9.5 (+/-2.5) | 182 (+/-48) |
Observed | N/A | N/A | 19 | 12 | 165 |
2009 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and observed activity.
Forecasting Group | Forecasting Method | Forecast Issue Date | Named Storms | Hurricanes | Accumulated Cyclone Energy |
FSU COAPS | Dynamical | 6/2/09 | 8 | 4 | 65 |
NOAA | Hybrid | 5/21/09 | 9-14 | 4-7 | 65-130% of median |
UK Met Office | Dynamical | 6/18/09 | 6 (70% chance of 3-9) | N/A | 60 (70% chance of 40-80) |
Colorado State University | Statistical | 6/2/09 | 11 | 5 | 85 |
Tropical Storm Risk | Statistical | 6/4/09 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 69 |
Observed | N/A | N/A | 9 | 3 | 52 |