Forecast Archive

To learn more about this forecast, contact lead scientist Tim LaRow ( This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ; (850) 644-6926).

 

2012 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and observed activity.

Forecasting Group Forecasting Method Forecast Issue Date Total Named Storms (Tropical Storms + Hurricanes) Hurricanes Accumulated Cyclone Energy
FSU COAPS Dynamical 5/30/12 13 (70% chance of 10-16) 7 (70% chance of 5-9) 122
NOAA Hybrid 8/9/12 70% chance of 12-17 70% chance of 5-8 70% chance of 75%-135% of the median (which is 87.5 for 1950-2000)
UK Met Office Dynamical 5/24/12 10 (70% chance of 7-13) N/A 90 (70% chance of 28-152)
Colorado State University Statistical 4/4/12 10 4 70
Tropical Storm Risk Statistical 5/23/12 12.7 (+/-3.9) 5.7 (+/-2.7) 98 (+/-52)
2012 Observed N/A N/A 19 10 123
Average Observed per Season, 1981-2010 N/A N/A 12 6 104
 

2011 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and observed activity.

Forecasting Group Forecasting Method Forecast Issue Date Total Named Storms (Tropical Storms + Hurricanes) Hurricanes Accumulated Cyclone Energy
FSU COAPS Dynamical 6/1/11 17 (70% chance of 14-20) 9 (70% chance of 7-10) 163 (70% chance of 130-183)
NOAA Hybrid 5/19/11 12-18 6-10 105%-200% of 1981-2010 median
UK Met Office Dynamical 5/26/11 13 (70% chance of 10-17) N/A 151 (70% chance 82-212)
Colorado State University Statistical 6/1/11 16 9 160
Tropical Storm Risk Statistical 6/6/11 14.1 (+/-3.4) 7.6 (+/-2.4) 123 (+/-48)
Observed N/A N/A 18 (19 total tropical storms) 7 123
 

2010 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and observed activity.

Forecasting Group Forecasting Method Forecast Issue Date Named Storms Hurricanes Accumulated Cyclone Energy
FSU COAPS Dynamical 6/1/10 17 10 156
NOAA Hybrid 5/27/10 14-23 8-14 155-270% of median
UK Met Office Dynamical 6/17/10 20 (70% chance of 10-17) N/A 204 (70% chance of 90-319)
Colorado State University Statistical 6/2/10 18 10 85
Tropical Storm Risk Statistical 6/4/10 17.7 (+/-3.5) 9.5 (+/-2.5) 182 (+/-48)
Observed N/A N/A 19 12 165
 

2009 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and observed activity.

Forecasting Group Forecasting Method Forecast Issue Date Named Storms Hurricanes Accumulated Cyclone Energy
FSU COAPS Dynamical 6/2/09 8 4 65
NOAA Hybrid 5/21/09 9-14 4-7 65-130% of median
UK Met Office Dynamical 6/18/09 6 (70% chance of 3-9) N/A 60 (70% chance of 40-80)
Colorado State University Statistical 6/2/09 11 5 85
Tropical Storm Risk Statistical 6/4/09 10.9 5.2 69
Observed N/A N/A 9 3 52