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Author
Devanas, A. ; Stefanova, L.
Title
Statistical Prediction Of Waterspout Probability For The Florida Keys
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2018
Publication
Weather and Forecasting
Abbreviated Journal
Wea. Forecasting
Volume
33
Issue
Pages
389-410
Keywords
Regression analysis ; Forecast verification/skill ; Forecasting techniques ; Probability forecasts/models/distribution ; Statistical forecasting
Abstract
A statistical model of waterspout probability was developed for wet-season (June–September) days over the Florida Keys. An analysis was performed on over 200 separate variables derived from Key West 1200 UTC daily wet-season soundings during the period 2006–14. These variables were separated into two subsets: days on which a waterspout was reported anywhere in the Florida Keys coastal waters and days on which no waterspouts were reported. Days on which waterspouts were reported were determined from the National Weather Service (NWS) Key West local storm reports. The sounding at Key West was used for this analysis since it was assumed to be representative of the atmospheric environment over the area evaluated in this study. The probability of a waterspout report day was modeled using multiple logistic regression with selected predictors obtained from the sounding variables. The final model containing eight separate variables was validated using repeated fivefold cross validation, and its performance was compared to that of an existing waterspout index used as a benchmark. The performance of the model was further validated in forecast mode using an independent verification wet-season dataset from 2015–16 that was not used to define or train the model. The eight-predictor model was found to produce a probability forecast with robust skill relative to climatology and superior to the benchmark waterspout index in both the cross validation and in the independent verification.
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0882-8156
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
553
Permanent link to this record
Author
DiNapoli, S
Title
Determining the Error Characteristics of H*WIND
Type
$loc['typeManuscript']
Year
2010
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Hurricane, Tropical Cyclones, Wind Analysis, Uncertainty
Abstract
The HRD Real-time Hurricane Wind Analysis System (H*Wind) is a software application used by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division to create a gridded tropical cyclone wind analysis based on a wide range of observations. One application of H*Wind fields is calibration of scatterometers for high wind speed environments. Unfortunately, the accuracy of the H*Wind product has not been studied extensively, and therefore the accuracy of scatterometer calibrations in these environments is also unknown. This investigation seeks to determine the uncertainty in the H*Wind product and estimate the contributions of several potential error sources. These error sources include random observation errors, relative bias between different data types, temporal drift resulting from combining non-simultaneous measurements, and smoothing and interpolation errors in the H*Wind software. The effects of relative bias between different data types and random observation errors are determined by performing statistical calculations on the observed wind speeds. We show that in the absence of large biases, the total contribution of all error sources results in an uncertainty of approximately 7% near the storm center, which increases to nearly 15% near the tropical storm force wind radius. The H*Wind analysis algorithm is found to introduce a positive bias to the wind speeds near the storm center, where the analyzed wind speeds are enhanced to match the highest observations. In addition, spectral analyses are performed to ensure that the filter wavelength of the final analysis product matches user specifications. With increased knowledge of these error sources and their effects, researchers will have a better understanding of the uncertainty in the H*Wind product, and can then judge the suitability of H*Wind for various research applications
Address
Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science
Corporate Author
Thesis
$loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher
Florida State University
Place of Publication
Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
574
Permanent link to this record
Author
DiNapoli, S.M. ; Bourassa, M.A. ; Powell, M.D.
Title
Uncertainty and Intercalibration Analysis of H*Wind
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2012
Publication
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology
Abbreviated Journal
J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol.
Volume
29
Issue
6
Pages
822-833
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0739-0572
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
249
Permanent link to this record
Author
DiNapoli, S.M. ; Misra, V.
Title
Reconstructing the 20th century high-resolution climate of the southeastern United States
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2012
Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Abbreviated Journal
J. Geophys. Res.
Volume
117
Issue
D19
Pages
n/a-n/a
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0148-0227
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
238
Permanent link to this record
Author
Dombrowsky, E. ; Bertino, L. ; Brassington, G. ; Chassignet, E. ; Davidson, F. ; Hurlburt, H. ; Kamachi, M. ; Lee, T. ; Martin, M. ; Mei, S. ; Tonani, M.
Title
GODAE Systems in Operation
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2009
Publication
Oceanography
Abbreviated Journal
Oceanog.
Volume
22
Issue
3
Pages
80-95
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
1042-8275
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
382
Permanent link to this record
Author
Domingues, R. ; Kuwano-Yoshida, A. ; Chardon-Maldonado, P. ; Todd, R.E. ; Halliwell, G. ; Kim, H.-S. ; Lin, I.-I. ; Sato, K. ; Narazaki, T. ; Shay, L.K. ; Miles, T. ; Glenn, S. ; Zhang, J.A. ; Jayne, S.R. ; Centurioni, L. ; Le Hénaff, M. ; Foltz, G.R. ; Bringas, F. ; Ali, M.M. ; DiMarco, S.F. ; Hosoda, S. ; Fukuoka, T. ; LaCour, B. ; Mehra, A. ; Sanabia, E.R. ; Gyakum, J.R. ; Dong, J. ; Knaff, J.A. ; Goni, G.
Title
Ocean Observations in Support of Studies and Forecasts of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2019
Publication
Frontiers in Marine Science
Abbreviated Journal
Front. Mar. Sci.
Volume
6
Issue
Pages
446
Keywords
Abstract
Over the past decade, measurements from the climate-oriented ocean observing system have been key to advancing the understanding of extreme weather events that originate and intensify over the ocean, such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical bomb cyclones (ECs). In order to foster further advancements to predict and better understand these extreme weather events, a need for a dedicated observing system component specifically to support studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs has been identified, but such a system has not yet been implemented. New technologies, pilot networks, targeted deployments of instruments, and state-of-the art coupled numerical models have enabled advances in research and forecast capabilities and illustrate a potential framework for future development. Here, applications and key results made possible by the different ocean observing efforts in support of studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs, as well as recent advances in observing technologies and strategies are reviewed. Then a vision and specific recommendations for the next decade are discussed.
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
2296-7745
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ user @
Serial
1043
Permanent link to this record
Author
Dukhovskoy, D. S. ; Morey, S. L. ; O'Brien, J. J.
Title
Baroclinic topographic waves on the Nicaragua Shelf generated by tropical cyclones
Type
$loc['typeReport']
Year
2006
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
World Meteorological Organization
Place of Publication
Geneva, Switzerland
Editor
Cote, J.
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Research Activities in Atmospheric and Ocean Modeling, Report No. 36
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
ONR, NASA
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
924
Permanent link to this record
Author
Dukhovskoy, D. S. ; Morey, S. L. ; O'Brien, J. J.
Title
Topographic Rossby Waves in a Z-Level Ocean Model
Type
$loc['typeReport']
Year
2005
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
03.05-03.06
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
World Meteorological Organization
Place of Publication
Geneva, Switzerland
Editor
Cote, J.
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Research Activities in Atmospheric and Ocean Modeling, Report No. 35
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
ONR, NASA
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
903
Permanent link to this record
Author
Dukhovskoy, D. S. ; Morey, S. L. ; O'Brien, J. J.
Title
Topographic Rossby waves in a z-level ocean model
Type
$loc['typeMagazine Article']
Year
2005
Publication
Eos Trans. AGU
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
86
Issue
18
Pages
Jt. Assem. Suppl., Abstract OS22A-06
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
ONR, NASA
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
909
Permanent link to this record
Author
Dukhovskoy, D. ; Johnson, M. ; Proshutinsky, A.
Title
Arctic decadal variability from an idealized atmosphere-ice-ocean model: 2. Simulation of decadal oscillations
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2006
Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research
Abbreviated Journal
J. Geophys. Res.
Volume
111
Issue
C6
Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0148-0227
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
436
Permanent link to this record