Records
Author
AjayaMohan, R. S. ; Jagtap, S. ; LaRow, T. E. ; Cocke, S. ; O'Brien, J. J. ; Jones, J. ; Shin, D. W.
Title
Using climate models to generate crop yield forecasts in southeast USA
Type
$loc['typeConference Article']
Year
2004
Publication
Research Activities in Atmospheric and Ocean Modeling, CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
881
Permanent link to this record
Author
Arguez, A. ; O'Brien, J. J. ; Smith, S. R.
Title
The Relationship Between Low-Frequency North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Surface Temperatures over Eastern North America and Europe
Type
$loc['typeConference Article']
Year
2004
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
The CRCES-IRPC Workshop on Decadal Variability, NASA, NSF, and NOAA, Waikoloa, Hawaii, USA
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
892
Permanent link to this record
Author
Arruda, W.Z. ; Nof, D. ; O'Brien, J.J.
Title
Does the Ulleung eddy owe its existence to beta and nonlinearities?
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2004
Publication
Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers
Abbreviated Journal
Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers
Volume
51
Issue
12
Pages
2073-2090
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0967-0637
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
454
Permanent link to this record
Author
Banks, R. F.
Title
Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation runs across the Southeast U.S.
Type
$loc['typeManuscript']
Year
2004
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Florida State University
Place of Publication
Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
583
Permanent link to this record
Author
Bourassa, M. A.
Title
A Sea Surface Stress Parameterization Dependent on Directional Seastate
Type
$loc['typeConference Article']
Year
2004
Publication
CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation, Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modeling
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
4.07-4.08
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
World Meteorological Organization
Place of Publication
Geneva, Switzerland
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
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Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
FYAP, NASA, OSU, ONR, NSF, OVWST
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
884
Permanent link to this record
Author
Bourassa, M.A.
Title
An improved sea state dependency for surface stress derived from in situ and remotely sensed winds
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2004
Publication
Advances in Space Research
Abbreviated Journal
Advances in Space Research
Volume
33
Issue
7
Pages
1136-1142
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
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Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0273-1177
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
NASA, NOAA, NSF, FYAP, ONR, OVWST
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
463
Permanent link to this record
Author
Brolley, J. M.
Title
Experimental Forest Fire Threat Forecast
Type
$loc['typeManuscript']
Year
2004
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Forest Fire, El Nino, ENSO, Seasonal Forecast, KBDI, Keetch-Byram Drought Index, Bootstrapping
Abstract
Climate shifts due to El Niño (warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and La Niña (cooler than normal) are well known and used to predict seasonal temperature and precipitation trends up to a year in advance. These climate shifts are particularly strong in the Southeastern United States. During the winter and spring months, El Niño brings plentiful rainfall and cooler temperatures to Florida. Recent los Niños occurred in 1997-1998, one of the strongest on record, with another mild El Niño in 2002-2003. Conversely, La Niña is associated with warm and dry winter and spring seasons in Florida. Temperature and precipitation affect wildfire activity; interannual drivers of climate, like ENSO, have an influence on wildfire activity. Studies have shown a strong connection between wildfires in Florida and La Niña, with the more than double the average number of acres burned (O'Brien et al 2002; Jones et al. 1999). While this relationship is important and lends a degree of predictability to the relative activity of future wildfire seasons, human activities such as effective suppression, prescribed burns, and ignition can play an equally important role in wildfire risks. This study forecasts wildfire potential rather than actual burn statistics to avoid complications due to human interactions. This wildfire threat potential is based upon the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). The KBDI is well suited as a seasonal forecast medium. It is based on daily temperature and rainfall measurements and responds to changing climate and weather conditions on time scales of days to months, and this index is high during dry warm weather patterns and low during wet cool patterns. The KBDI has been widely used in forestry in the Southeastern United States since its development in the 1970's, with foresters and firefighters have a good level of familiarity with the index and its applications. The KBDI is calculated daily and used as an index by wildfire managers. This study calculates wildfire potential using a statistical method known as bootstrapping. Many datasets contain approximately a half-century of data, and the limited dataset will introduce biases. Bootstrapping can remedy bias by simulating thousands of years of data, which retain the climatology for the past half-century. Bootstrapping preserves the mean but not the variance. By incorporating this method, this study will improve long-term forest fire risks that will become useful for those living or working near forests and assist in managing forests and wildfires. The Southeast Climate Consortium will also be issuing wildfire risk forecast for Florida and parts of Alabama and Georgia based on ENSO phase and the KBDI. Climate information and ENSO predictions are better served by incorporating them with known climate indices that are routinely used in the forestry sector. Wildfire managers and foresters operationally use the KBDI to monitor and predict wildfire activity (O'Brien et al. 2002). Meteorologists at the Florida Division of Forestry have demonstrated the validity of the KBDI as an indicator of potential wildfire activity in Florida (Long 2004). They showed that the value of the KBDI is not as important as the deviation from the monthly average. The wildfire risk forecast is based on the probabilities of KBDI anomalies and will present the probabilities associated with large deviations from the seasonal normal.
Address
Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author
Thesis
$loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher
Florida State University
Place of Publication
Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
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Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
622
Permanent link to this record
Author
Curry, J.A. ; Bentamy, A. ; Bourassa, M.A. ; Bourras, D. ; Bradley, E.F. ; Brunke, M. ; Castro, S. ; Chou, S.H. ; Clayson, C.A. ; Emery, W.J. ; Eymard, L. ; Fairall, C.W. ; Kubota, M. ; Lin, B. ; Perrie, W. ; Reeder, R.A. ; Renfrew, I.A. ; Rossow, W.B. ; Schulz, J. ; Smith, S.R. ; Webster, P.J. ; Wick, G.A. ; Zeng, X.
Title
Seaflux
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2004
Publication
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Abbreviated Journal
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Volume
85
Issue
3
Pages
409-424
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0003-0007
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
459
Permanent link to this record
Author
Dukhovskoy, D.S.
Title
Arctic decadal variability: An auto-oscillatory system of heat and fresh water exchange
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2004
Publication
Geophysical Research Letters
Abbreviated Journal
Geophys. Res. Lett.
Volume
31
Issue
3
Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0094-8276
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
NSF
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
461
Permanent link to this record
Author
Enloe, J. ; O'Brien, J.J. ; Smith, S.R.
Title
ENSO Impacts on Peak Wind Gusts in the United States
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2004
Publication
Journal of Climate
Abbreviated Journal
J. Climate
Volume
17
Issue
8
Pages
1728-1737
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0894-8755
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
NOAA
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
458
Permanent link to this record