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Author
Liu, Q. ; Tan, Z-M. ; Sun, J. ; Hou, Y. ; Fu, C. ; Wu, Z.
Title
Changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2020
Publication
Environmental Research Letters
Abbreviated Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Volume
15
Issue
4
Pages
Keywords
Abstract
The continuing change of the Earth's climate is believed to affect the influenza viral activity and transmission in the coming decades. However, a consensus of the severity of the risk of influenza epidemic in a warming climate has not been reached. It was previously reported that the warmer winter can reduce influenza epidemic-caused mortality, but this relation cannot explain the deadly influenza epidemic in many countries over northern mid-latitudes in the winter of 2017-2018, one of the warmest winters in recent decades. Here we reveal that the widely spread 2017-2018 influenza epidemic can be attributed to the abnormally strong rapid weather variability. We demonstrate, from historical data, that the large rapid weather variability in autumn can precondition the deadly influenza epidemic in the subsequent months in highly populated northern mid-latitudes; and the influenza epidemic season of 2017-2018 was a typical case. We further show that climate model projections reach a consensus that the rapid weather variability in autumn will continue to strengthen in some regions of northern mid-latitudes in a warming climate, implying that the risk of influenza epidemic may increase 20% to 50% in some highly populated regions in later 21st century.
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Medium
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Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ user @
Serial
1070
Permanent link to this record
Author
Robinson, W. ; Speich, S. ; Chassignet, E.
Title
Exploring the Interplay Between Ocean Eddies and the Atmosphere
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2018
Publication
Eos
Abbreviated Journal
Eos
Volume
99
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Mesoscale ; Climate ; Variability ; Atmospheric
Abstract
Climate models, for the first time, have sufficient resolution to capture mesoscale ocean eddies and their interactions with the atmosphere.New model results suggest that the atmosphere, at weather scales or larger, responds to cumulative effects of the much smaller ocean eddies. Intriguing new model results presented at the workshop suggested that the atmosphere, at weather scales or larger.
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Publisher
Place of Publication
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Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
2324-9250
ISBN
Medium
Area
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Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ rl18 @
Serial
988
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Author
Xu, X. ; Chassignet, E.P., Wang, F.
Title
On the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation transports in coupled CMIP5 simulations
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2018
Publication
Climate Dynamics
Abbreviated Journal
Clim Dyn.
Volume
51
Issue
11
Pages
6511-6531
Keywords
NAO-AMOC ; CMIP5 ; NAO index ; AMOC index ; meridional pressure gradient ; magnitude ; structure change of the NAO.
Abstract
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a fundamental role in the climate system, and long-term climate simulations are used to understand the AMOC variability and to assess its impact. This study examines the basic characteristics of the AMOC variability in 44 CMIP5 (Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations, using the 18 atmospherically-forced CORE-II (Phase 2 of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment) simulations as a reference. The analysis shows that on interannual and decadal timescales, the AMOC variability in the CMIP5 exhibits a similar magnitude and meridional coherence as in the CORE-II simulations, indicating that the modeled atmospheric variability responsible for AMOC variability in the CMIP5 is in reasonable agreement with the CORE-II forcing. On multidecadal timescales, however, the AMOC variability is weaker by a factor of more than 2 and meridionally less coherent in the CMIP5 than in the CORE-II simulations. The CMIP5 simulations also exhibit a weaker long-term atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, one cannot fully attribute the weaker AMOC variability to the weaker variability in NAO because, unlike the CORE-II simulations, the CMIP5 simulations do not exhibit a robust NAO-AMOC linkage. While the variability of the wintertime heat flux and mixed layer depth in the western subpolar North Atlantic is strongly linked to the AMOC variability, the NAO variability is not.
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ISBN
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Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ rl18 @
Serial
981
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Author
Bruno-Piverger, R.E.
Title
Applying Neural Networks to Simulate Visual Inspection of Observational Weather Data
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2019
Publication
Florida State University College of Arts and Sciences, Master's Thesis
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
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Abstract
Address
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Thesis
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Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
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$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ user @
Serial
1090
Permanent link to this record
Author
Wang, S. ; Kranz, S.A. ; Kelly, T.B. ; Song, H. ; Stukel, M.R. ; Cassar, N.
Title
Lagrangian Studies of Net Community Production: The Effect of Diel and Multiday Nonsteady State Factors and Vertical Fluxes on O2 /Ar in a Dynamic Upwelling Region
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2020
Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Abbreviated Journal
J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.
Volume
125
Issue
6
Pages
e2019JG005569
Keywords
net community production ; O2/Ar ; California Current Ecosystem ; Lagrangian measurements ; vertical fluxes ; nonsteady state
Abstract
The ratio of dissolved oxygen to argon in seawater is frequently employed to estimate rates of net community production (NCP) in the oceanic mixed layer. The in situ O2/Ar‐based method accounts for many physical factors that influence oxygen concentrations, permitting isolation of the biological oxygen signal produced by the balance of photosynthesis and respiration. However, this technique traditionally relies upon several assumptions when calculating the mixed‐layer O2/Ar budget, most notably the absence of vertical fluxes of O2/Ar and the principle that the air‐sea gas exchange of biological oxygen closely approximates net productivity rates. Employing a Lagrangian study design and leveraging data outputs from a regional physical oceanographic model, we conducted in situ measurements of O2/Ar in the California Current Ecosystem in spring 2016 and summer 2017 to evaluate these assumptions within a �worst‐case� field environment. Quantifying vertical fluxes, incorporating nonsteady state changes in O2/Ar, and comparing NCP estimates evaluated over several day versus longer timescales, we find differences in NCP metrics calculated over different time intervals to be considerable, also observing significant potential effects from vertical fluxes, particularly advection. Additionally, we observe strong diel variability in O2/Ar and NCP rates at multiple stations. Our results reemphasize the importance of accounting for vertical fluxes when interpreting O2/Ar‐derived NCP data and the potentially large effect of nonsteady state conditions on NCP evaluated over shorter timescales. In addition, diel cycles in surface O2/Ar can also bias interpretation of NCP data based on local productivity and the time of day when measurements were made.
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Publisher
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Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
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Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
2169-8953
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ user @
Serial
1114
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Author
Laxenaire, R., Speich, S., & Alexandre S
Title
Evolution of the thermohaline structure of one Agulhas Ring reconstructed from satellite altimetry and Argo floats. Journal of Geophysical Research
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2019
Publication
Oceans
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
124
Issue
12
Pages
8969-9003
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Abstract
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ISBN
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$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ user @
Serial
1096
Permanent link to this record
Author
Xu, X. ; Bower, A. ; Furey, H. ; Chassignet, E.P.
Title
Variability of the Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water Transport Through the Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone: Results From an Eddying Simulation and Observations
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2018
Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Abbreviated Journal
J. Geophys. Res. Oceans
Volume
Issue
8
Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Observations show that the westward transport of the Iceland‐Scotland overflow water (ISOW) through the Charlie‐Gibbs Fracture Zone (CGFZ) is highly variable. This study examines (a) where this variability comes from and (b) how it is related to the variability of ISOW transport at upstream locations in the Iceland Basin and other ISOW flow pathways. The analyses are based on a 35‐year 1/12° eddying Atlantic simulation that represents well the main features of the observed ISOW in the area of interest, in particular, the transport variability through the CGFZ. The results show that (a) the variability of the ISOW transport is closely correlated with that of the barotropic transports in the CGFZ associated with the meridional displacement of the North Atlantic Current front and is possibly induced by fluctuations of large‐scale zonal wind stress in the Western European Basin east of the CGFZ; (b) the variability of the ISOW transport is increased by a factor of 3 from the northern part of the Iceland Basin to the CGFZ region and transport time series at these two locations are not correlated, further suggesting that the variability at the CGFZ does not come from the upstream source; and (c) the variability of the ISOW transport at the CGFZ is strongly anticorrelated to that of the southward ISOW transport along the eastern flank of the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge, suggesting an out‐of‐phase covarying transport between these two ISOW pathways.
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Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
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Summary Language
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Series Editor
Series Title
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Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
2169-9275
ISBN
Medium
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Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ user @
Serial
1023
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Author
Roberts, M.J. ; Jackson, L.C. ; Roberts, C.D. ; Meccia, V. ; Docquier, D. ; Koenigk, T. ; Ortega, P. ; Moreno‐ ; Chamarro, E. ; Bellucci, A. ; Coward, A. ; Drijfhout, S. ; Exarchou, E. ; Gutjahr, O. ; Hewitt, H. ; Iovino, D. ; Lohmann, K. ; Putrasahan, D. ; Schiemann, R. ; Seddon, J. ; Terray, L. ; Xu, X. ; Zhang, Q. ; Chang, P. ; Yeager, S.G. ; Castruccio, F.S. ; Zhang. C. ; Wu, L.
Title
Sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Model Resolution in CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulations and Implications for Future Changes
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2020
Publication
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Abbreviated Journal
J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst.
Volume
Issue
Pages
Accepted
Keywords
Abstract
A multi‐model, multi‐resolution ensemble using CMIP6 HighResMIP coupled experiments is used to assess the performance of key aspects of the North Atlantic circulation. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and related heat transport, tends to become stronger as ocean model resolution is enhanced, better agreeing with observations at 26.5°N. However for most models the circulation remains too shallow compared to observations, and has a smaller temperature contrast between the northward and southward limbs of the AMOC. These biases cause the northward heat transport to be systematically too low for a given overturning strength. The higher resolution models also tend to have too much deep mixing in the subpolar gyre. In the period 2015‐2050 the overturning circulation tends to decline more rapidly in the higher resolution models, which is related to both the mean state and to the subpolar gyre contribution to deep water formation. The main part of the decline comes from the Florida Current component of the circulation. Such large declines in AMOC are not seen in the models with resolutions more typically used for climate studies, suggesting an enhanced risk for Northern Hemisphere climate change. However, only a small number of different ocean models are included in the study.
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Series Editor
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ISBN
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Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ user @
Serial
1109
Permanent link to this record
Author
Stukel, M.R. ; Décima, M. ; Landry, M.R. ; Selph, K.E.
Title
Nitrogen and isotope flows through the Costa Rica Dome upwelling ecosystem: The crucial mesozooplankton role in export flux
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2018
Publication
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Abbreviated Journal
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Volume
32
Issue
12
Pages
1815–1832.
Keywords
Crustaceans ; Diel vertical migration ; Nitrogen cycle ; Biological carbon pump ; Nitrogen isotopes ; Linear inverse ecosystem model
Abstract
The Costa Rica Dome (CRD) is an open-ocean upwelling ecosystem, with high biomasses of picophytoplankton (especially Synechococcus), mesozooplankton, and higher trophic levels. To elucidate the food web pathways supporting the trophic structure and carbon export in this unique ecosystem, we used Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to assimilate data from four independent realizations of δ15N and planktonic rate measurements from the CRD into steady state, multicompartment ecosystem box models (linear inverse models). Model results present well-constrained snapshots of ecosystem nitrogen and stable isotope fluxes. New production is supported by upwelled nitrate, not nitrogen fixation. Protistivory (rather than herbivory) was the most important feeding mode for mesozooplankton, which rely heavily on microzooplankton prey. Mesozooplankton play a central role in vertical nitrogen export, primarily through active transport of nitrogen consumed in the surface layer and excreted at depth, which comprised an average 36-46% of total export. Detritus or aggregate feeding is also an important mode of resource acquisition by mesozooplankton and regeneration of nutrients within the euphotic zone. As a consequence, the ratio of passively sinking particle export to phytoplankton production is very low in the CRD. Comparisons to similar models constrained with data from the nearby equatorial Pacific demonstrate that the dominant role of vertical migrators to the biological pump is a unique feature of the CRD. However, both regions show efficient nitrogen transfer from mesozooplankton to higher trophic levels (as expected for regions with large fish, cetacean, and seabird populations) despite the dominance of protists as major grazers of phytoplankton.
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ISBN
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Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ rl18 @
Serial
978
Permanent link to this record
Author
Kranz, S.A. ; Wang, S. ; Kelly, T.B. ; Stukel, M.R. ; Goericke, R. ; Landry, M.R. ; Cassar, N.
Title
Lagrangian Studies of Marine Production: A Multimethod Assessment of Productivity Relationships in the California Current Ecosystem Upwelling Region
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2020
Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Abbreviated Journal
J. Geophys. Res. Oceans
Volume
125
Issue
6
Pages
Keywords
gross primary production ; long‐ ; term ecological research ; equilibrium inlet mass spectrometry ; carbon export ; net community production
Abstract
A multimethod process‐oriented investigation of diverse productivity measures in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) Long‐Term Ecological Research study region, a complex physical environment, is presented. Seven multiday deployments covering a transition region from high to low productivity were conducted over two field expeditions (spring 2016 and summer 2017). Employing a Lagrangian study design, water parcels were followed over several days, comparing 24‐h in situ measurements (14C and 15NO3 ‐uptake, dilution estimates of phytoplankton growth, and microzooplankton grazing) with high‐resolution productivity measurements by fast repetition rate fluorometry (FRRF) and equilibrium inlet mass spectrometry (EIMS), and integrated carbon export measuremnts using sediment traps. Results show the importance of accounting for temporal and fine spatial scale variability when estimating ecosystem production. FRRF and EIMS measurements resolved diel patterns in gross primary and net community production. Diel productivity changes agreed well with comparably more traditional measurements. While differences in productivity metrics calculated over different time intervals were considerable, as those methods rely on different base assumptions, the data can be used to explain ecosystem processes which would otherwise have gone unnoticed. The processes resolved from this method comparison further understanding of temporal and spatial coupling and decoupling of surface productivity and potential carbon burial in a gradient from coastal to offshore ecosystems.
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Publisher
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Summary Language
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Series Editor
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Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
2169-9275
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ user @
Serial
1113
Permanent link to this record