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Links
Author
Brolley, J. M.
Title
Experimental Forest Fire Threat Forecast
Type
$loc['typeManuscript']
Year
2004
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Forest Fire, El Nino, ENSO, Seasonal Forecast, KBDI, Keetch-Byram Drought Index, Bootstrapping
Abstract
Climate shifts due to El Niño (warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and La Niña (cooler than normal) are well known and used to predict seasonal temperature and precipitation trends up to a year in advance. These climate shifts are particularly strong in the Southeastern United States. During the winter and spring months, El Niño brings plentiful rainfall and cooler temperatures to Florida. Recent los Niños occurred in 1997-1998, one of the strongest on record, with another mild El Niño in 2002-2003. Conversely, La Niña is associated with warm and dry winter and spring seasons in Florida. Temperature and precipitation affect wildfire activity; interannual drivers of climate, like ENSO, have an influence on wildfire activity. Studies have shown a strong connection between wildfires in Florida and La Niña, with the more than double the average number of acres burned (O'Brien et al 2002; Jones et al. 1999). While this relationship is important and lends a degree of predictability to the relative activity of future wildfire seasons, human activities such as effective suppression, prescribed burns, and ignition can play an equally important role in wildfire risks. This study forecasts wildfire potential rather than actual burn statistics to avoid complications due to human interactions. This wildfire threat potential is based upon the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). The KBDI is well suited as a seasonal forecast medium. It is based on daily temperature and rainfall measurements and responds to changing climate and weather conditions on time scales of days to months, and this index is high during dry warm weather patterns and low during wet cool patterns. The KBDI has been widely used in forestry in the Southeastern United States since its development in the 1970's, with foresters and firefighters have a good level of familiarity with the index and its applications. The KBDI is calculated daily and used as an index by wildfire managers. This study calculates wildfire potential using a statistical method known as bootstrapping. Many datasets contain approximately a half-century of data, and the limited dataset will introduce biases. Bootstrapping can remedy bias by simulating thousands of years of data, which retain the climatology for the past half-century. Bootstrapping preserves the mean but not the variance. By incorporating this method, this study will improve long-term forest fire risks that will become useful for those living or working near forests and assist in managing forests and wildfires. The Southeast Climate Consortium will also be issuing wildfire risk forecast for Florida and parts of Alabama and Georgia based on ENSO phase and the KBDI. Climate information and ENSO predictions are better served by incorporating them with known climate indices that are routinely used in the forestry sector. Wildfire managers and foresters operationally use the KBDI to monitor and predict wildfire activity (O'Brien et al. 2002). Meteorologists at the Florida Division of Forestry have demonstrated the validity of the KBDI as an indicator of potential wildfire activity in Florida (Long 2004). They showed that the value of the KBDI is not as important as the deviation from the monthly average. The wildfire risk forecast is based on the probabilities of KBDI anomalies and will present the probabilities associated with large deviations from the seasonal normal.
Address
Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author
Thesis
$loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher
Florida State University
Place of Publication
Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
622
Permanent link to this record
Author
Brolley, J.M. ; O'Brien, J.J. ; Schoof, J. ; Zierden, D.
Title
Experimental drought threat forecast for Florida
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2007
Publication
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Abbreviated Journal
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume
145
Issue
1-2
Pages
84-96
Keywords
wildfires ; Keetch-Byram drought index ; drought ; El Nino/Southern oscillation ; spectral weather generator
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0168-1923
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
USDA and NOAA
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
422
Permanent link to this record
Author
Brunke, M.A. ; Zeng, X. ; Misra, V. ; Beljaars, A.
Title
Integration of a prognostic sea surface skin temperature scheme into weather and climate models
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2008
Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research
Abbreviated Journal
J. Geophys. Res.
Volume
113
Issue
D21
Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0148-0227
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
678
Permanent link to this record
Author
Bruno-Piverger, R.E.
Title
Applying Neural Networks to Simulate Visual Inspection of Observational Weather Data
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2019
Publication
Florida State University College of Arts and Sciences, Master's Thesis
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ user @
Serial
1090
Permanent link to this record
Author
Buchanan, S. ; Misra, V. ; Bhardwaj, A.
Title
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5450
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2018
Publication
International Journal of Climatology
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
38
Issue
6
Pages
2651-2661
Keywords
Abstract
The integrated kinetic energy (IKE) of a tropical cyclone (TC), a volume integration of the surface winds around the centre of the TC, is computed from a comprehensive surface wind (National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) cross‐calibrated multi‐platform [CCMP]) analysis available over the global oceans to verify against IKE from wind radii estimates of extended best‐track data maintained by NOAA for the North Atlantic TCs. It is shown that CCMP surface wind analysis severely underestimates IKE largely from not resolving hurricane force winds for majority of the Atlantic TCs, under sampling short‐lived and small‐sized TCs. The seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic TC IKE also verifies poorly in the CCMP analysis. In this article we introduce proxy IKE (PIKE) based on the kinetic energy of the winds at the radius of the last closed isobar (ROCI), which shows promise for a wide range of TC sizes including the smaller‐sized TCs unresolved in the CCMP data set.
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
551
Permanent link to this record
Author
Cabrera, V., D. Solis, G. Baigorria and D. Letson
Title
Managing climate variability in agricultural analysis
Type
$loc['typeBook Chapter']
Year
2009
Publication
Ocean Circulation and El Niño: New Research
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
163-179
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Nova Publishing, Inc
Place of Publication
Editor
J.A. Long and D.S. Wells
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
665
Permanent link to this record
Author
Cabrera, V.E., D. Solis, and D. Letson
Title
Optimal crop insurance under climate variability: contrasting insurer and farmer interests
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2009
Publication
Transactions of the ASABE
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
52
Issue
2
Pages
623-631
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
657
Permanent link to this record
Author
Cabrera, V.E., D. Solis, G.A. Baigorria, and D. Letson
Title
Managing climate risks to agriculture: evidence from El Nino
Type
$loc['typeReport']
Year
Publication
Southeast Climate Consortium Technical Report Series
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
14
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
SECC
Place of Publication
Gainesville, FL
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
661
Permanent link to this record
Author
Cammarano, D. ; Basso, B. ; Stefanova, L. ; Grace, P.
Title
Adapting wheat sowing dates to projected climate change in the Australian subtropics: analysis of crop water use and yield
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2012
Publication
Crop and Pasture Science
Abbreviated Journal
Crop Pasture Sci.
Volume
63
Issue
10
Pages
974
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
1836-0947
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
257
Permanent link to this record
Author
Caron, J.
Title
The generation of synthetic sea surface temperature date for the equatorial Pacific Ocean
Type
$loc['typeManuscript']
Year
1997
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author
Thesis
$loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher
Florida State University
Place of Publication
Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
646
Permanent link to this record